“This Will END BADLY” – Chris Whalen
Whalen explains why market euphoria has faded under Trump’s “shock and awe” strategy. Banks face a $3 trillion mortgage securities problem yielding under 3% against 3% funding costs. He notes the FDIC has stopped reporting troubled bank asset totals after 35 years, suggesting numerous insolvent institutions need resolution. Despite these issues, Whalen doesn’t forecast a recession, seeing continued growth with isolated credit problems.
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Twitter/X: / rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanaly…
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3 Comments
Maybe some less high pitched background noises.
As with doctors, lawyers used car dealers, mechanics and a whole host of other people, along with the government, if they open their mouth and anything spews out of it, it's a lie
What a shocker this guy is. He appears totally clueless that Trump's exceptionalist isolationist policies, both domestically and foreign, along with his stated goals, are completely contradictory and incoherent.
How on earth can Whalen not expect a recession when the deficits are already blowing out spectacularly, and the Govt will have more and more trouble selling its growing mountain of debt – how about around $10.5 trillion that needs to to financed this year when the central bankers of the world have been net sellers of US sovereign debt since 2014?
FFS, the PGDP (Productive GDP) of the U$ at just over $5 trillion, works out at a mind-boggling ratio (Public Debt :PGDP) of more than 750%. The U$ real economy is behind India now. It's in #3 spot, at only 33% the size of China's PGDP. Meanwhile, the average U$ taxpayer has a net liability (including unfunded liabilities) of around ~$1.2 million.
Whalen raves at 8:30 about an under-utilisation of credit lines for consumers of 20% but forgets to mention that their over-borrowing is what got them into difficulty in the first place.
Now that the fundamental insolvency of the U$ economy is becoming common knowledge, the natural progression for interest rates is upward because risk has to be priced into the equation at all levels. These consumers, can't make ends meet now, let alone by borrowing more and blowing that too. These people are very concerned about the future, and rightly so.
This guy is clearly a Trump fanboy and conveniently forgets that under his #45 Admin, the Fed balance sheet grew at 50x the rate per year of the average of the Obama and Biden admins – what a shocker, given that they were both shockingly incompetent as well.
Remember that central bank balance sheet growth amounts to papering over an economy that is performing badly. Between Trump, Bessent (a Soros asset), and Lutnick (their Wall Street connection – the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, a Fed Primary Dealer) they are setting the entire country up for a giant fall.
Mainstreet and the productive economy will be the losers – BIGLY!!!
They were sold the most obscene wealth heist in the history of the nation. As this dawns on them, the country will become more ungovernable by the day. Expect a constitutional crisis when SCOTUS rules most of the tariffs illegal and they all have to be paid back with interest.