MSTR has been under pressure for weeks, but the data tells a very different story. In this video, we break down relative performance, momentum structure, capital rotation, and key cost-basis levels to uncover whether this is a real setup for the next leg higher. Using the same analytical framework I apply to Bitcoin, we explore what the upside targets realistically look like and which signals are worth watching.
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31 Comments
I was about to ask, how and where can i find this charts/software and you answered it lol
Today is 12/24/25 and Bitcoin is at $87,000 and MSTR is at $160….. When BTC drops to $70,000 then MSTR will be sub $100.
MSTR is totally ok with this buying opportunity.
underrated channel, great work
Explain to me how is MSTR in any way shape or form better than you directly buying your btc, and using a bit of leverage if you want extra exposure?
This garbage of a nothing producing company should never be above 1.0 nav because you are not counting in the risk of paying bitcoin price for some used car salesman to own your bitcoin?
How are people so stupid i do not get it.
Buy meow!
After all the time I’ve put into analysis and strategy testing, I’m still not seeing the clarity or consistency I need< It’s discouraging seeing others succeed while my account keeps slipping. Has anyone actually worked with someone who genuinely walks you through the process, rather than just sells another recycled course? I need real help, not another course.
Despite a sharp ~63% drawdown, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is showing multiple signs of selling exhaustion and early bottom formation. Momentum indicators are at extreme historical lows and beginning to turn, while rising volume at the lows suggests real accumulation rather than distribution. On-chain and cost-basis data indicate price may gravitate back toward key recovery zones around $212–$260, with a potential move toward ~$325 if momentum continues and broader Bitcoin conditions stabilize.
Key takeaway:
This looks less like ongoing breakdown and more like capitulation followed by stabilization. Confirmation still requires reclaiming key levels, but risk/reward is improving compared to recent weeks.
Bottom line:
MSTR remains volatile and levered to Bitcoin, but current technical and volume signals suggest the worst of the sell-off may be behind it, with a reasonable probability of a reflexive recovery if broader market conditions cooperate.
Superb analysis. Best on the internet. Thanks
Great video as always
I would like to see a chart that has MSTR share price / (BTC price * BTC per share). I understand this may be difficult to chart.
As MSTR's BTC concnertation per share has risen, and the share price has dropped so significantly. It would be interesting.
Just crossed 200k, it's almost 6x growth from my starting point of 36k at the beginning of the year. My long-term goals are lining up nicely
I’m AIM trading MST. Been buying all the way down.
Yeah, buy MSTR… or maybe buy gold mining stocks instead.
MSTR holders are underwater all right. I'm so far down SpongeBob is buying me drinks 😂
So full port MSTU? 😎
My one thought. At one point, it was difficult for many including corporations to buy bitcoin, so they bought MSTR. Now they can buy ETFs, or direct bitcoin and own it directly, so less reason to buy MSTR. Just a thought. But why pay a premium for MSTR?
I gave Gemini Pro some of my top signals and had it analyze the market from it's own POV as well, combining BTC with MSTR. I mean I come up with 300-600K potential median BTC price targets whenever next euphoria hits depending whether you think the diminishing returns of tops is a real pattern or if you think that the 2021 double top was a kind of outlier artifact due to liquidity and rates after COVID handling and take the average extension instead. The only event prior to 2020 that might be really truly compared is 2008 and we don't have BTC market data for that time since it wasn't around or liquid. In that kind of price range… MSTR can top out anywhere from $700-$2000 depending on the speed of the move thanks to how it moves with volatility relative to BTC – the higher meaning probably the more sharp the blowoff top and correction. Luckily my cost-basis is 175… this is like a 10x potential trade the way I scale out into strength with biggest portions occurring near the most probable result and bell curving back down if we get a little extra.
P.S. Yes except for people that absolutely need liquidity at the POC / breakeven point, or those who were overleveraged and really just want the pain to stop… it's probably going to squeeze through. Equity investors hold through brutal downturns for a reason, and as a strategy. They don't really think like traders, they think "you don't lose if you don't sell". Totally terrible logic for a leveraged trader, but fine for investors willing to say bye bye if it goes to zero.
Nice video, I get new capital mid January, hope it stays under 250😩
There is no second best- I buy BTC with confidence at the current level.
🎯 Key points for quick navigation:
00:41 📉 MSTR dropped approximately 36% in monthly change, representing one of its most violent selloffs in history
01:09 📊 Despite the brutal correction, MSTR remains up over 22% year-on-year when viewed from a broader perspective
01:37 🎯 Current drawdown sits at around 63% from all-time high, significantly less severe than the 89% drawdown during the previous bear market
02:34 🔄 The drawdown structure mirrors the May 2021 selloff pattern, but Bitcoin itself hasn't followed the same path this cycle
03:15 ⚖️ MSTR is down about 16% versus Bitcoin on a yearly basis, meaning Bitcoin holders would be better off over the past year
03:41 🚀 From the cycle start point, MSTR holders are still approximately 70% better off than Bitcoin-only holders
03:55 💎 At November's peak, MSTR showed over 370% excess return compared to Bitcoin during a period when Bitcoin itself rallied 6x
05:56 📍 Momentum coalescence metric printed the largest negative reading since August 2020, worse than the deepest point of the previous bear market
06:23 🔁 Momentum indicators are now curling upward and beginning to form a bottom, historically occurring near durable cycle lows
07:16 ⚡ Velocity RSI shows the second lowest reading ever for MSTR, indicating deep exhaustion territory
08:38 📈 Daily traded volume has nearly doubled compared to two months ago, showing meaningful shift in market participation
08:53 🎣 Volume surge appeared right at the bottom of the selloff, indicating buyers stepped in aggressively rather than capitulating
09:48 💰 Average short-term holder cost basis sits around $325, representing likely entry point for investors from the past 5-6 months
10:16 🗺️ Price has dropped into the second lowest cost band, a zone historically only reached during the deepest bear markets
10:28 🎲 Recovery likely involves choppy action in the $212-$260 range before attempting to reclaim the $325 average buyer level
11:38 🔮 If momentum continues upward trajectory, the $325 level could become a launch pad toward upper cost band levels
12:04 ✅ Multiple bottom signals align: momentum indicators bottomed at historic lows, volume doubled, and price sits in historically durable low zones
12:34 🎪 Key levels to watch are the low $200 region and the $325 average buyer level to determine if this is a structural trend reversal
Made with HARPA AI
I have 165 shares mstr at 180$
Btc is setting up a massive bear flag lol. MSTR will fall with BTC. Before anyone says anything I love crypto, and I don’t love it for the technology. I love it for the money. Btc broke the 50 week moving average in November confirming a bear market. I took all my profit at $123k because the cycle is predictable. Wait till btc hits the 200 week moving average to start accumulating and go all in when btc spikes above the 50 week moving average after a bear market. Next crypto run will probably retire me if it continues to repeat the cycle
660K+ Bitcoin is no joke… 953 shares HODL!
I don’t understand why this is surprising.
I missed something. 1. How is this BTC cycle different than others? You said it’s different.
2. You said MSTR is up 22% in the last year? YTD it’s down 36%, and in the last 365 days it’s down 49%..
Thanks!
I bought some more MSTR at $180. I bought some more BTC at $89. BTFD. Hodl. Don't use leverage or debt. Don't sell. Yet.
Don’t worry we’ll be at 50k come next summer BTC ain’t going to new highs 2026
The secret, in my opinion, lies in combining indicators from different channels to prevent tunnel vision. I now combine indicators from three channels… OCM is one of them, and one of the best and most consistent. Thanks OCM!
Chart at 7:30 makes it clear this is a great buying opportunity and we should more than likely at least see a huge bounce soon. But don't listen to me I'm wrong more than I'm right 😅
We are approximately at Jan 10th 2022 currently. My analysis shows us trying to get to 104k before rolling to the 60ks.
If MSTR does what it did in 2021 it can go to $240 and then it resumes its bear market.