While markets focus on the trade negotiations between President Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, the reality of a global industrial war footing is being ignored. Hal Kempfer, retired Marine Intelligence Officer and CEO of Global Risk Intelligence and Planning, joins Jeremy Szafron, Senior Anchor at Kitco News, to expose the massive disconnect between geopolitical reality and market complacency.
Kempfer breaks down China’s $189 billion missile supply chain surge, comparing Beijing’s current resource desperation to Japan in the 1930s. He also unpacks the hidden $29 billion cost of the Iran war, the dangerous drain on U.S. munition stockpiles, and the terrifying reality of AI “leaping” into modern warfare. Finally, Kempfer gives his contrarian 6-month forecast for the Strait of Hormuz and explains why investors should actually be preparing for a dramatic drop in oil prices.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Beijing Summit Meets War Costs
01:54 Chokepoints and Black Swans
03:35 Boardroom Threat Priorities
08:01 China Leverage and Rare Earths
13:34 Missile Surge and Taiwan Deterrence
21:20 Iran Capabilities and Hormuz Shipping
25:42 Hormuz Mining Reality
27:47 War Costs and ROI
31:19 Stockpiles and Supply Chains
32:45 AI Chips and Dual Use
35:13 Metals and Hemisphere Resources
43:09 Oil Outlook and Energy Shift
#HalKempfer #Geopolitics #China #Taiwan #IranWar #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #SupplyChain #MacroEconomics #KitcoNews #Investing #Gold #Silver #AIWeapons #USEconomy
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27 Comments
Hal Kempfer just dropped a major contrarian prediction on the energy markets. While the mainstream is bracing for $150 oil due to the Strait of Hormuz restrictions, he is predicting an "abundance of oil" and a dramatic price drop over the next six months. Do you buy his timeline, or is the market completely underestimating the geopolitical risk? Let us know your thoughts below.
Peace is not good for the warmonger pirates. Never ending wars.
Hmmmmm. I haven't gone to school for finance and don't have an economic background but now both straits are cut off plus Russias oil supply is cut from Ukrainian bombing and now Saudi Arabias being bombed by the Houthis and they have about 7% of the world's supply so HOW COULD THE PRICE DROP? Maybe the title is just to get people to click on it.
Wait for Iran to get optic cable drones by thousands and medium range AI drones like Ukraine has now. I doubt there will be any carriers left in 2K mile radius.
Covert peak oil will make all the experts appear as being either idiots or lying. Petroleum has tanked. 😱😱😱😱
This guy is right on the money one month later from this release and oil is sub $90 A barrel going down to 50 soon.
This man’s lenses isn’t corrupted by his nationality
Laser weapons are the very near future of ship and aircraft weapons systems.
Ship board generators offer limitless firepower compared to a limited supply of costly missiles. On-board missiles are soon to be relics of the past. No need to retreat to safe harbor to rearm with missiles if the ships have a dozen or more laser guns.
6 months from now Duh Strait'll be open. Since israel is gettin' neutralized. Meanwhile since so little upstream capacity has either been compromised or will have been compromised. no issue there. Dug deep for this reference Jeremy….26,000 cliks !
>>><<<
Interesting proportions and propositions.
The SPRs are running really low
And that’s a fact. I disagree with the guests opinion.
Iran wants revenge and all that they need to do is bide time.
Trump lacks the courage and the wisdom to admit he is wrong and leave the Hormuz straight, China is taking full advantage of this.
Delusions of republican fools. Keep them coming the BS is entertaining.
Free Palestine,
dont believe notorius liers,
😂😂😂😂😂
He's a stoodge for the US government.
You need ais to find tankers in a 20 mile strait – really 😂 Even the radar on my yacht could clearly pick those out. Hilariously stupid argument.
Financial markets are not the spot price, its the forward price. They are always slow to react then over-react when reality dawns.
Iranian missiles have caused $60 billion of damage to fossil fuel infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Some of that damage will take years to repair. Sizeable fires and severe infrastructure damage hit Qatar's primary LNG facilities, Saudi Arabia's SAMREF refinery in Yanbu, Bahrain's Bapco Energies facility on Sitra, and Kuwait’s Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery. Abu Dhabi was also forced to halt operations at its Habshan gas facility and Bab field following targeted strikes.
– Due to a lack of takeaway capacity, refineries and oil fields have been shut down. Refineries: 2 months to restart. Oil fields are tricky to restart. It is done slowly; sometimes a producing oil well will not restart.
-Mines laid by Iran must be cleared. Some are sophisticated mines that lie on the ocean floor and shoot up when a large ship like an oil tanker passes over them.
-It takes time to transport oil to, let's say, Europe by oil tankers. Oil tankers go at the speed of a bicycle. If they can't take the Suez Canal due to the Houthis, then around Africa is the only and slower route. You are looking at 2 months if there is no bad weather.
-Insurance companies will take some time to drop rates to insure tankers. People are going to pay the cost of high insurance rates.
-Iran knows the longer that the Straits of Hormuz stay closed, the greater the shortage of oil increases. That means the price per barrel goes higher. There is not that much oil in world emergency storage.
-So how does Hal Kempfer justify a surge in oil supply?
Best interviewer in Kitco’s history. We love you Jeremy
There is no evidence either visual or AIS that Hormuz traffic is as high as he claims.Prices are being suppressed by depleting reserves. This guy just says things
our military leadership is increasingly unimpressive and pompous. Sad 😔
Delusional guy. Can't take his opinion seriously.
Yeah. If the straight opens up fully with out tolls . The market will react and gas will go down a little before it sky rockets up to 8. 9. Or even 10 bucks a gallon is more than a possibility if shortage reaches united states its easy to see gas at any price
The permanent, unnecessary block letter subtitle is very annoying.
If you take all new porsche and lamborghini off the market.
Ferraris will be more expensive.
My prediction is close. But the fed will use money from printing to reduce oil prices as oil production will increase
Your guest is either a fool, or is a puppet of the govt cabal
Oil and stocks are both being hugely manipulated by the govt to sell a fake story fairy tale
Pure propaganda
I love this Show!!