Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint, joins Jeremy Szafron on Kitco News to warn that the world has entered a “Metals War” where nations are scrambling to secure resources for future conflicts. Phair argues that a “Hidden Hand”—governments employing banks to conduct mercantile banking—is quietly accumulating gold and silver, fundamentally decoupling the physical market from the Fed’s interest rate policies.
He details why US banks flipped from net short to net long after Thanksgiving, the “desperate” arbitrage that saw jets flying silver across the Atlantic, and the reality of China’s new export licensing system. Phair also breaks down his “Axis vs. Allies” thesis for resource control and updates the “Phair-Sinclair Ratio,” predicting a path to $35,000 gold as the West faces a critical shortage of strategic minerals.
Recorded December 30 2025.
Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (
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Follow Josh Phair on X: @JoshPhilipPhair (
00:00 – The Fed is Broken & Silver Explodes
01:16 – The “Metals War” Has Begun
02:34 – The “Hidden Hand”: Governments Buying Secretly
04:01 – US Banks Flip Net Long (Insider Intel)
07:17 – Axis vs. Allies: The Battle for Critical Resources
14:32 – China Locks Exports: The Supply Chain Break
20:02 – Strategic Metals: The New Oil of 2026
22:45 – The US-China Decoupling Reality
24:23 – Fact Check: Are Wholesale Lines Freezing?
29:05 – Physical Shortages & Retail Panic
33:24 – AI Slop & Fake Market Signals
37:02 – $35,000 Gold Forecast (Phair-Sinclair Ratio)
#Silver #Gold #MetalsWar #JoshPhair #KitcoNews #Geopolitics #Investing #Economy #JeremySzafron
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The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.
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34 Comments
The American government is so evil, corrupt, unstable and unpredictable how can any business let alone a mining enterprise with such a long time horizon plan for the future?
Great job, Kitco!
Phair Lion …. Covid woke me up
SCARRR-city
@12:00 this guy is an idiotic 😅
At last ! Real meaningful news.
5 seconds summary: war is coming soon. Kinetic war.
don't bet against the United States ?? Bro you just discredited yourself.
Excellent guest. If he is correct and we are in mercantile banking, could that explain the $40B the Fed injected as liquidity?
"Retail" aka…(the public) is always the last to know thanks to our fake media!
Dude I need a new video!! Lol 😅
Great interview will be waiting for more much needed information and outlooks in the past present and future going forward
Metals spikes is nothing. Wait until they start selling worthless U.S. bond paper.
Theyre realizing that price inflation is outpacing bond yields. Zero return.
Who can make war with the Beast?
so the US gov is buying silver, nice
So basically you are saying that China has large hidden reserve of silver but the USA has more silver in it’s « backyard »…
Banksters and political grifters don't want people to know what they are doing because THEY ARE ROBBING THE FOOLS 😅😅😅
Probably the best interview in the space I've seen in a very long time. WOW.
Thanks so much!
That vest nice over that black shirt …no homo..good video
I like that vest
A great discussion, exiting times indeed
Sat 3rd Jan. Venezuela suddenly more topical than ever! Whither gold and silver on Monday…?
When I saw the price kick down to the middle 50s I had to get in I didn't know it was going to go like that I'm glad I did.
I traded 10 oz and it grew 160.00 before the person received it.
It is natual that market wil have correction while rising too quickly,and a short option may just represents a short term trade,if judging from technical point of views,while a short pattern reached the new height ,are you not allow people to cash out?,and those people are experts at technic trading skills,so,for a long trends,you will be surprise to see the trends are favor to go for quiet a long times,not to mention that the production cost are such,also it does not fall from sky!
The host has tried so hard to lead to a direction that market has signs of short while the mint ceo has states fairy honest that the direction are heading a bits of long based on the current market are facing the inventory low and the advance AI technical demend,to me the Host is kind of facts blind,Ai has creates such huge chips needs,not to mention the memory modules are actual short of production,so I would think the host does not fit for the current world,or self prejudice stubbon people?
Monroe doctrine!
Always happy to hear Josh's thoughts on your show, one of your most well informed guests who is happy to share his trade knowledge and experience with us plebs…with that in mind, I found it quite interesting the comments he made about US courting countries with military protection during the "metal wars" so as an Australian, have to say its very disappointing to see the US turning its back while our northern neighbours navy plays military games in our seas over domestic air routes while we shipped more than $4bn in gold into the US early in 2025, causing a US-AUS trade surplus in our favour for the first time resulting in the excuse to slap tariffs on our exports…with friends like this, who needs enemies!
Even more so disappointing as we've been allies since WWII and followed the US into every military conflict since then
Maybe we should hedge our bets and become a neutral "Switzerland of Asia Pacific (APAC)" and sell our commodities to whichever side be it BRICs or the west – once the metal war turns kinetic, after all no one wants to feel like they're being "taken for granted" in any relationship…
This is AI not real humans
If China is buying around the world, what are they buying in. Yuan, I doubt it very much.
I love how Americans discuss taking OTHER PEOPLES resources like THEY own them . SICK SOCIETY
India has brought 8000 metric tons of silver in 2024/25. The speaker seems to blissfully ignorant about this fact.
Great guest, knowledgeable, no high drama, just solid information.
Does anyone ever have enough balls to call banks crooks and their tactics being fraudulent? Jesus Christ its sickening!!!!
Super great discussion and info. Thank you.