Nik welcomes back Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital for an urgent breakdown of the global liquidity cycle. Michael explains why the cyclical top is in, how oil, the MOVE index, and the dollar have dealt a 20% blow to global liquidity, and why the everything bubble is over. They cover the $45 trillion debt maturity wall, China’s monetization driving gold, Treasury QE replacing Fed QE, bank deregulation as a 2027 catalyst, private credit’s illiquidity risk, and why Michael says don’t trade bitcoin or gold, own them.
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Timestamps:
0:00 — Intro & Highlights
0:12 — Welcome & Guest Introduction
0:23 — MOVE Index and Liquidity Outlook
1:42 — Geopolitics vs. the Liquidity Cycle
4:42 — Oil’s 3% Per $10 Liquidity Drain
6:44 — Why Money Can’t Be in Two Places at Once
8:05 — TGA, Treasury QE, and M2 as a Flawed Metric
11:03 — M2 vs. Broader Liquidity Measures
14:01 — SLR Reform and Bank Deregulation
17:44 — Timing of Deregulation vs. Fed Balance Sheet
22:26 — Private Sector Liquidity Shrinking
25:20 — AI Capex Draining Financial Market Liquidity
28:22 — The $45 Trillion Debt Maturity Wall
32:49 — The Debt Liquidity Cycle Explained
37:28 — Bond Term Premia and What the Market Is Really Saying
41:25 — How to Position: Don’t Trade bitcoin, Own It
45:29 — When Does the Fed Come Back In?
49:53 — China’s Liquidity Injections and Yuan Gold
54:21 — Credit Spreads and Private Credit Risk
58:42 — AI Investment and Demands on Capital Markets
1:04:30 — Michael’s 12-Month Outlook
1:06:56 — Wrap-Up & Where to Find Michael
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