In this Outlook 2026 special, Jeremy Szafron sits down with Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, to break down the “Regime Change” hitting markets. Larry warns that a credit accident has already started, citing the collapse of the First Brands DIP loan (trading in the 30s) and the CoreWeave bonds (yielding 12%) as proof that underwriting standards have failed.
They discuss the “New Axis” of power in Washington, why the “Quarterly Liquidity” promise in private credit is the next Lehman-style risk, and why capital is about to rotate from the $32 Trillion Nasdaq 100 into the “bombed-out villages” of Hard Assets (Energy, Copper, Coal). Plus, actionable deep-value trades on Diageo, Schlumberger, and Brazil.
Recorded on December 15 2025
This Outlook 2026 segment is brought to you by Discovery Silver. Combining high-quality gold production with one of the world’s largest undeveloped silver deposits. Learn more at ()
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00:00 – The Credit Accident & The Fed’s $200B “Bazooka”
02:15 – “Pure Madness”: Restarting QE at Full Employment
05:30 – The “Shadow Fed”: Fannie & Freddie Liquidity Up 25%
08:20 – The Private Credit Crisis: First Brands DIP & CoreWeave
13:30 – The “Quarterly Liquidity” Trap: The Next Lehman Moment?
16:20 – The Great Rotation: $32T Nasdaq vs. Commodities
18:30 – AI Valuation Absurdity: 34 Rio Tintos in 1 NVIDIA
22:00 – Deep Value: Why GM & Diageo Are “Tax Loss” Buys
24:30 – The $42 Billion Robotaxi Alcohol Thesis
27:00 – Natural Gas: The FCG ETF & Free Cash Flow Yields
33:00 – Bitcoin vs. Gold: When to Rotate?
36:00 – Oil Services: Schlumberger & The “Gulf of America”
37:45 – The Brazil Opportunity: 15% Real Rates
#KitcoNews #LarryMcDonald #Recession #Fed #Gold #Bitcoin #StockMarket #Outlook2026 #CreditCrisis #PrivateCredit
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44 Comments
32 Trillion because the Dollar devalued by more than half verse hard assets.
Fantastic interview Jeremy! Lots of notes to take here for investing in 2026!
This was a great show and guest. Enjoyed the big picture discussion.
Excellent accept for the bitcoin nonsense.
Red flag. Bitcoin idiocy is astonishing.
Who cares about your palm beach visit did you go bed the knee at maralogo
2026 is going to be the best year for the Miners on record imo. They are still reporting on Gold and Silver sales at fractions of current spot.
Commodity cycle is over folks😂
Debasement play? All the assets you discussed are denominated in usd. If rmb will takeover then all those assets will be pennys for a RMB. Reason : china has plenty of those and even worse has the supply chains locked for unlimited supply. Be carefull what you wish.
Vegas is imploding as well
Lately, the BBB has injected so much hype (debts) in our economy that's just insane wreckness. It is already translating into an exciting time for the rich for their money laundering and ponzi schemes… unfortunately without any tangible growth in the real economy, energy sector, nor industrial turnarounds that can foster growth in the job market. The agricultural sector is quickly becoming a subsidiary entity. The only sector that is being propped is the AI bubble which aside from answering nice responses to challenging questions or help creating narratives for content creators, does very little in terms of building productive assets useful for our industries, our health or job creation. It's just keeps our stock market alive and fuels more tech upgrades into our war machine. This my friends are our sad realities shaping ahead like there is no tomorrow.
Don’t forgot big water requirements for data centers. Huge.
Have Gov Walz pay back all monies to the gov. Send back Omar, you have the proof how she entered USA. All money in her account
Everyone needs two jobs for the average family.
the guy looked a bit like a mad hatter to me, didn't know why, until he started pumping bitcoin.
Absolutely one of your best interviews especially the private credit fraud matters
C'mon guys. If we're entering an era of real wealth over paper wealth, why is real estate under pressure?
Socialise the cost, privatise the profit. This will be so much worse than 2008
Bitcoin is GARBAGE. Its a US invention to SWALLOW INFLATION FREE LIQUIDITY
Hay Larry, shut up you bore.
people you will hear the correction and rebound is going to be a U-shaped 6 to 18 months plan on three years until Trump's gone and we have a new democratic administration in you're all talking just about our own economy but you have to consider everyone's turned away from us our allies are gone China is gonna stop by our swimming beans next year after they take Taiwan in the Philippines
Now is the time to buy as much silver as you possibly can
Ask Google the future outlook of Silver they've got it at 300 an ounce within five years that's 500% no stock is gonna give you that return and what if it only goes to 120 that's 100% what stock gives you that return in just a short time
You gotta protect yourself with the Silver
I wish I could
I sold all my Bitcoin when all these major banks bought it all up. Totally defeated the purpose of what it was made for.. No way im sticking around for some pretend money
Diageo has increased prices of many of their top brands into the stratesphere. The whisky market has seen price increases that defy explanation. Many buyers of these great brands are not buying any more.
Why is it that all the Bitcoin bashers in the comments can’t spell or string a sentence together?
Your not saying anything !!!
QE. GDP. STOP TALKING IN RIDDLES
Bitcoin is gold for nerds, change my mind
This is a great channel.
Great page — Jeremy asks the questions we all want to know.
I will never buy BTC, regardless of BTC to Gold Ratio. I agree with much of what your guest has to say, but not that. BTC and all crypto is a joke. The Emperor has no clothes.
Every comment i made about FED being back at QE, and Ai circular financing similar to vendor financing in 1999 gets deleted. The big bro makes sure no one asks difficult questions and calls out an ai bubble.
Fantastic interview!
Brothers sisters guests Allah bless u all world people Aamien ♥️
I pray all europe media sisters brothers staff Alkah blees u
I think msrket 4000 per ounce
O am nit secure karachi terrirst kill me house rent jack MQM police involved
I want 2 help u 3rd war system in jarachi plz system take over forward usa donal trump president
Well come well come well come many many happy Christmas 🎄
Hi welcome kitco news sisters brothers all staff days and nights duties all guest
good interview
Interviewer please stop going mmmm mmmm mmmm when your guest is speaking
Paper money will still be around for a long time guys
-the Feds🎉
What about water in northern Texas?
Last year prior to the elections, they had a big meeting with the several cannabis groups about using cannabis and medicines.
I then found a company to invest in VFF ticker. It went from one dollar last year to four dollars today.