Jack Bogle talks about how to tell if the stock market is overvalued. Bogle is the founder of Vanguard, one of the leading investing firms focused on passive and index fund investing. He is the author of several books including The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. This interview took place in 2017.
Subscribe to The Investor Center for content focused on investing, stocks, entrepreneurship, and passive income. Interviews feature the best business minds in the world including Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Peter Lynch, and Ray Dalio. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2cL3pI1H3tiozKif6A8fmA
Warren Buffett Reading List:
The Intelligent Investor – https://amzn.to/31603ld
The Warren Buffett Way – https://amzn.to/3esAApY
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits – https://amzn.to/3hPtZb2
The Outsiders – https://amzn.to/315rZFJ
Business Adventures – https://amzn.to/2BwKKqI
Where are the Customers’ Yachts? – https://amzn.to/3fNNWxg
The Little Book of Common Sense Investing – https://amzn.to/2YXQban
(The above are affiliate links that help support the channel at absolutely zero cost to you.)
OTHER VIDEOS YOU MAY LIKE:
▪️Charlie Munger: Avoid These Mistakes to Double Your Net Worth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omqdy4_5iXw
▪️Howard Marks on Investing in a Low Interest Rate Environment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRpgOfSL4TU
▪️Charlie Munger: 100 Years of Wisdom Summed Up in 20 Minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S15XpqbUFFA&list=UU2cL3pI1H3tiozKif6A8fmA&index=19
source
42 Comments
Check out the most popular Jack Bogle video on the channel 🔽
https://youtu.be/cjyPPKAVhhE
A fair market value can be determined by looking at the current bond yield and compare it with current stock yield.
As of 1-9-2025
I've read Benjamin Graham and Jack Bogle's books plus countless others especially if they are value players. However this is the first time in my life – I'm 70 – in the 50 years of investing that I have zero in stocks. This is NOT an age thing it is simply due to the fact that the Shiller PE is at 38 (rounded) and if you adjust for overvalued profit margins it is closer to Shiller PE at 50!
This bubble is so big I would like to think that if Graham were alive today he would advocate a zero position in stocks. I realize they could push the market higher but not with my money! IMO the vast majority of these gains will be transitory and those investing 100% in stocks (S&P 500 index fund) at these valuation levels especially a large lump sum as gains will be negative for 10 years out and around 3% to 4% 20 years out.
Remember the math that Jack talks about in the video?? Money chimp does the math for you all you have to do in plug in the numbers. http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_predictor.htm
Hope this is of some help.
CHEERS!
He could not have been more wrong. The S&P 500 has returned ~140% in ~7 years since this interview!
well this interview was in 2017 and he thought going into a bear market and low returns for a while. The market has boomed and still sky rocketing. Insanity.
Before Jack died he said he hoped he didn't create a monster with these index funds. They were never meant for EVERYONE to put all their money in.
Investing in stocks isn't the same for everyone. Your age is very important. You don't wanna be all in stocks when you retire in case a crash happens right when you retire.
7:30 – 4% yearly return in next decade.
This is a 2017 video
1:30….. the market has nominally doubled since
What he did not consider at the time is that the printer goes brrrrrrrrrrr.
I agree with John Bogle but I think he could have warned people about how risky bonds can really be, considering that they'd been in over 30 year bull market for bonds. Ultra low interest rates for yrs, bond prices very high.
He was a great mind and help.
Not meant as a criticism, but he got the next 6 years wrong, which he would say, were he living, that that was his point precisely.
But maybe he wouldn’t. The structure or paradigm has changed with Fed intervention never seen before and money printing never seen before. So, is that sustainable? Real?
No one touches those questions.
Great mind
Jack Vangard Bogle what a great American
I've had Vanguard's s&p 500 17 years I promised myself I would never touch/cash in .
It's incredible the power/miracle of compounding thankyou Jack
So basically your attempt at timing the market should be tweaking your asset allocation a little bit. Anything more is a waste of time.
Thanks for sharing!
he's the nicest Sith Lord i've ever seen..
Humble, yet knowledgable. (Or maybe the other way around)
Legend.
Hmm 3-4 years ago
Was jan 13, 2021 the day this video was uploaded or the day the interview happened? I wish all videos had both dates clarified
Bogle was very inteligent , had a lot to say about stock market, a pity his gone
Sorry, but since 2017 (last 4 years) if you invested wisely in stocks, you should have yielded better than 20% annually! If you had invested in S&P500 it alone your annual yield would be better than 10%. In line with historic trends. Almost half way through the next decade (from the date of this interview) Jeff’s analysis seems to be off track. He doesn’t seem to account for the revolutionary technology developments which have been driving the markets forward …..yes there is a tech bubble after Covid but that doesn’t detract from the long term growth due to revolutions in tech and the market
His most important words "Trees don't grow to the sky"..
There is a limit to everything but no limit to making money. We need limited capitalism.
“If you’ve got a billion dollars and you’re ungrateful, you’re a poor man. If you have very little but you’re grateful for what you have, you’re truly rich.”
Sir John Templeton
Great video
"Invest you must"
PE valuations are even higher now in 2021. There are no permanent plateaus. Smart money is preparing by keeping some cash ready.
He says but Bitcoin
lol Council on Foreign Relations an organization which is part of deep state
Um. Is it when Tesla is at 1800:1 P/E. lol.
Don’t do something, just stand there!
Would like to hear his thoughts on current valuations.
His voice is so young……
thanks for sharing!
One of my core principles is to know roughly what the return of the asset is likely to be over the next 10 years. If you can buy stocks with returns that are expected to be close to double the market return then you can buy at a margin of safety with a good chance of outperforming; otherwise own the market. For those interested in a practical how to approach doing this, I would suggest taking a look at The Equity Edge, which spells out in easy steps how to do this. This book follows in the footsteps of Buffett, Munger and Graham, but offers a lot of practical insight, which you don't get elsewhere.
If you are indexing as he suggests you should never even pay attention to the market. If you are a value investor you will end up accumulating cash in times like these for lack of opportunities
Thank you so much for bringing us this video, Investor Center
It's not Timing the market but Time in the Market that counts.
"Never ever get out of the market."
This is a gem 💎
"Buy index funds that track the market" Everything John bogle has ever says in a nutshell😂