The International Energy Agency (IEA) has officially identified this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. As the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today, it faces a “nightmare setup”: energy prices are soaring just as the U.S. labor market begins to soften.
In this interview, Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of How to Listen to Market Speak, reveals why this isn’t just a macro scare—it is the “exhaustion of the paper-credit system itself”. From the 70% collapse of subprime lenders like Goeasy to Morgan Stanley’s 8% default warning for private credit, the “truth bleed” has begun.
In this episode, we break down:
-The “Grocery Bill” Shock: Why the 8-million-barrel drop and the spike in urea fertilizer (up 28%) are hitting the real economy during planting season.
-The Fed’s Dual-Mandate Trap: Why Powell is caught between an energy-driven inflation spike and a 2008-style credit crisis.
-The AI Credit Disruption: How the “CapEx lunacy” in Silicon Valley is triggering a wave of defaults in software-heavy portfolios.
-The Hard-Asset Manual: Larry’s tactical picks in Uranium, Coal, and Volatility, and why gold miners could face a 30% drawdown before the real rally.
Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (
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Follow Larry McDonald on Twitter: @Convertbond (
Video Timestamps
00:00 Energy Shock Opens
01:22 Fertilizer & Food Inflation
03:19 Gold Miners Cost Squeeze
06:17 Refining Bottlenecks
08:45 Housing & Rates Pressure
10:17 Private Credit Inferno
11:42 Fed & Financial Repression
14:16 Hard Assets Power Plays
17:29 AI Disruption & Credit Contagion
26:07 Rotation Into Energy
30:32 How to Trade Drawdowns
32:08 Midterms & Volatility Hedge
35:29 Closing Takeaways
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#gold #LarryMcDonald #OilShock #FedMeeting #PrivateCredit #Uranium #KitcoNews #Inflation #Nvidia #Copper #EnergyCrisis
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30 Comments
The International Energy Agency just confirmed the largest oil supply disruption in history. While the mainstream looks at $95 oil as a 'pullback,' Larry McDonald is warning that the real shock is moving into the diesel, fertilizers, and credit markets that power the real economy.
Larry says the 'paper-credit system' is reaching a point of exhaustion. If he’s right, the old 60/40 playbook isn't just underperforming – it’s a trap.
My question to you: Have you started rotating into the 'Hard-Asset Manual' Larry describes (Uranium, Coal, Bullion), or are you still betting on a Fed-driven soft landing?
you left out jet fuel is now 25 times more expensive now then when the war started.
Jeremy…you’re the only host/interviewer that not only guides the conversation but contributes as well. Great work!
Gold is 17% down from its high. Lol
Professional, informative, honest and with great guests – Kitco has become an indespensible resource for me – Cheers Jeremy.
great discussion…"too many monkeys hanging in the same tree"….these guys are really talking here. lots of good thinking on volatility and energy, the adverse consequences of poor concentrations…. and "The fat guy in the Hawaiian shirt."
You're a very good interviewer
Mullah & Ayatollah understand markets better than Donny & Biby?
If most gold miners and explorers earnings were priced in before the two years of record high spot price moves, why then would a spike in diesel and oil cause a panic!?
They're not operating on tight margins. Me thinks they can easily aborb this cost
Sounds to me like traders spreading rumours to shake out the "tourists"…is there a chapter on this in Larry's best seller two years running 😊
Jokes! I always listen to Larry's interviews at least twice…but I always have a chuckle when he gives his books a plug throughout an interview
Yeah well,the yanks forget,other people are thinking too,endless wars you yanks started have cost you so much,as have those you warred against ,and lives lost,and you call other people terrorists,to hell with you genocidal lunatics,and you call iran a terrorist state,the governments around the world have become corrupt over the years,following the demorats example,so everything is corrupted!!@
Merci chers amis 🙏👍🇨🇵
"silver blowoff top". what the are you talking about???
The main takeaway from what is going on is get a good proportion of your wealth outside the system & fast..
Doesn't the interviewee realise that miners hedge their diesel costs?
Various gold sector specialists whose newsletters I subscribe to, say the fuel cost increases for miners are slim to marginal when looking into the details. In my opinion, this guest is just NOT thinking in depth. Good questions, but sketchy generalist quality answers. Like a hearing comments on Ukraine war tactics, from those who have never heard of, let alone read: Clausewitz.
Good interview!
Jeremy, thanks for a great interview with the great Larry McDonald.
the miners hedge diesel for 1-2 years so relax ,and many now work with electric
China buy US goe an siva becauz it a cheapa.
HOW MANY TIMES IS THIS GUY GONNA PLUG HIS BOOK? NOBODY WANTS UR BOOK DUDE!! ESPECIALLY U PLUGGING IT SO MANY TIMES!!!!!
What a coincidence, all these events and scenarios magically relating to each other…
Why tf would you buy stocks in gold mines instead of physical gold?? It's like giving your money to a middleman you don't know
In Gold we Trust! 🎉
Costs are peanuts at these levels just another narrative in my opinion!
Jeremy Szafron – you are an excellent INTERVIEWER, too many bad ones out there…and you aren't one of them !! Good job as always !!
What people don't expect is that when correlation goes to 1, Gold and Silver goes UP
What's suppressing gold price at the moment
what about gold not mines
Solid miner hedge diesel out at least a year. Get the facts before you sell. If Wall Street has a knee jerk reaction, maybe dollar average in some more.
To be honest it’s landlords who are causing real inflation which households experience not government. They raise rent, which in turn raises the neighborhood cost floor. That raises market comps, which raises what other landlords think they can charge. That raises the average share of income tenants must allocate to rent, which raises wage pressure. That then feeds back into broader prices.
The largest cost in most people’s lives is rent itself, and many landlords already own their dwelling outright. That cost exists because landlords lift it.
Landlords “rising costs” are relatively stable, and the costs that do go up do not rise uniformly for landlords unlike the labor class. Their major expense categories do not rise at the pace they push rents. Their rent hikes are the direct contributor to inflation in the real economy, but they blame government exclusively as the scapegoat. They also receive automatic pay increases each and every year from tenant/employees who do not have socialized risk to receive automatic wage increases every year. This means assets are valued more than labor especially on an inelastic basic human standardized utility.
Landlords are not absorbing inflation. They are creating the actual inflation for the entire market by raising rent prices which is the cost floor for the rest of the market. Then they say to go get another job when everybody is already working, while they are not working and are collecting rent on everybody else’s labor.