The International Energy Agency (IEA) has officially identified this as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. As the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting today, it faces a “nightmare setup”: energy prices are soaring just as the U.S. labor market begins to soften.
In this interview, Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of How to Listen to Market Speak, reveals why this isn’t just a macro scare—it is the “exhaustion of the paper-credit system itself”. From the 70% collapse of subprime lenders like Goeasy to Morgan Stanley’s 8% default warning for private credit, the “truth bleed” has begun.
In this episode, we break down:
-The “Grocery Bill” Shock: Why the 8-million-barrel drop and the spike in urea fertilizer (up 28%) are hitting the real economy during planting season.
-The Fed’s Dual-Mandate Trap: Why Powell is caught between an energy-driven inflation spike and a 2008-style credit crisis.
-The AI Credit Disruption: How the “CapEx lunacy” in Silicon Valley is triggering a wave of defaults in software-heavy portfolios.
-The Hard-Asset Manual: Larry’s tactical picks in Uranium, Coal, and Volatility, and why gold miners could face a 30% drawdown before the real rally.
Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (
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Follow Larry McDonald on Twitter: @Convertbond (
Video Timestamps
00:00 Energy Shock Opens
01:22 Fertilizer & Food Inflation
03:19 Gold Miners Cost Squeeze
06:17 Refining Bottlenecks
08:45 Housing & Rates Pressure
10:17 Private Credit Inferno
11:42 Fed & Financial Repression
14:16 Hard Assets Power Plays
17:29 AI Disruption & Credit Contagion
26:07 Rotation Into Energy
30:32 How to Trade Drawdowns
32:08 Midterms & Volatility Hedge
35:29 Closing Takeaways
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#gold #LarryMcDonald #OilShock #FedMeeting #PrivateCredit #Uranium #KitcoNews #Inflation #Nvidia #Copper #EnergyCrisis
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50 Comments
The International Energy Agency just confirmed the largest oil supply disruption in history. While the mainstream looks at $95 oil as a 'pullback,' Larry McDonald is warning that the real shock is moving into the diesel, fertilizers, and credit markets that power the real economy.
Larry says the 'paper-credit system' is reaching a point of exhaustion. If he’s right, the old 60/40 playbook isn't just underperforming – it’s a trap.
My question to you: Have you started rotating into the 'Hard-Asset Manual' Larry describes (Uranium, Coal, Bullion), or are you still betting on a Fed-driven soft landing?
Gold is not pricing anything yet. When a months stay at an Airbnb cast 4, 500 plus or One ounce of Gold, then gold is severely undervalued
you left out jet fuel is now 25 times more expensive now then when the war started.
Jeremy…you’re the only host/interviewer that not only guides the conversation but contributes as well. Great work!
Gold is 17% down from its high. Lol
Professional, informative, honest and with great guests – Kitco has become an indespensible resource for me – Cheers Jeremy.
great discussion…"too many monkeys hanging in the same tree"….these guys are really talking here. lots of good thinking on volatility and energy, the adverse consequences of poor concentrations…. and "The fat guy in the Hawaiian shirt."
Correction – Epsteins started attacking oil infrastructure not only in Iran but caught red handed in Saudi & else where.
You're a very good interviewer
Mullah & Ayatollah understand markets better than Donny & Biby?
If most gold miners and explorers earnings were priced in before the two years of record high spot price moves, why then would a spike in diesel and oil cause a panic!?
They're not operating on tight margins. Me thinks they can easily aborb this cost
Sounds to me like traders spreading rumours to shake out the "tourists"…is there a chapter on this in Larry's best seller two years running 😊
Jokes! I always listen to Larry's interviews at least twice…but I always have a chuckle when he gives his books a plug throughout an interview
Yeah well,the yanks forget,other people are thinking too,endless wars you yanks started have cost you so much,as have those you warred against ,and lives lost,and you call other people terrorists,to hell with you genocidal lunatics,and you call iran a terrorist state,the governments around the world have become corrupt over the years,following the demorats example,so everything is corrupted!!@
Merci chers amis 🙏👍🇨🇵
"silver blowoff top". what the are you talking about???
The main takeaway from what is going on is get a good proportion of your wealth outside the system & fast..
Doesn't the interviewee realise that miners hedge their diesel costs?
Various gold sector specialists whose newsletters I subscribe to, say the fuel cost increases for miners are slim to marginal when looking into the details. In my opinion, this guest is just NOT thinking in depth. Good questions, but sketchy generalist quality answers. Like a hearing comments on Ukraine war tactics, from those who have never heard of, let alone read: Clausewitz.
Good interview!
Jeremy, thanks for a great interview with the great Larry McDonald.
the miners hedge diesel for 1-2 years so relax ,and many now work with electric
China buy US goe an siva becauz it a cheapa.
HOW MANY TIMES IS THIS GUY GONNA PLUG HIS BOOK? NOBODY WANTS UR BOOK DUDE!! ESPECIALLY U PLUGGING IT SO MANY TIMES!!!!!
What a coincidence, all these events and scenarios magically relating to each other…
Why tf would you buy stocks in gold mines instead of physical gold?? It's like giving your money to a middleman you don't know
In Gold we Trust! 🎉
Costs are peanuts at these levels just another narrative in my opinion!
Jeremy Szafron – you are an excellent INTERVIEWER, too many bad ones out there…and you aren't one of them !! Good job as always !!
What people don't expect is that when correlation goes to 1, Gold and Silver goes UP
What's suppressing gold price at the moment
what about gold not mines
Solid miner hedge diesel out at least a year. Get the facts before you sell. If Wall Street has a knee jerk reaction, maybe dollar average in some more.
To be honest it’s landlords who are causing real inflation which households experience not government. They raise rent, which in turn raises the neighborhood cost floor. That raises market comps, which raises what other landlords think they can charge. That raises the average share of income tenants must allocate to rent, which raises wage pressure. That then feeds back into broader prices.
The largest cost in most people’s lives is rent itself, and many landlords already own their dwelling outright. That cost exists because landlords lift it.
Landlords “rising costs” are relatively stable, and the costs that do go up do not rise uniformly for landlords unlike the labor class. Their major expense categories do not rise at the pace they push rents. Their rent hikes are the direct contributor to inflation in the real economy, but they blame government exclusively as the scapegoat. They also receive automatic pay increases each and every year from tenant/employees who do not have socialized risk to receive automatic wage increases every year. This means assets are valued more than labor especially on an inelastic basic human standardized utility.
Landlords are not absorbing inflation. They are creating the actual inflation for the entire market by raising rent prices which is the cost floor for the rest of the market. Then they say to go get another job when everybody is already working, while they are not working and are collecting rent on everybody else’s labor.
So buy miners or not??
Gas prices is bull crap The price is so Manipulated Goes up over night when what is already in tank was bought days or weeks ago Then takes weeks to go back down
This guy thinks that silver went up because of guys in Hawaiian shirts instead of a severe shortage of silver
Gold breaking $5,000 isn’t just about fear it’s about reallocation
*Gold interesting hedge against usd devaluation
*Geopolitical uncertainty
*Central banks are massively buying gold
*Debt & government mismanagement is massive
* Safe heaven
Great Guest , Im saving the broadcast to take notes and you did not do a bad job questioning Good Job Kitco Give the interviewer a big fat raise
Stagnation
"I was at the White House…' and ??? I also visited once… as a member of a tour group… but seriously, experience has taught me that people who name-drop are not to be taken seriously… besides that, a giant book promotion video … everyone is doubling down on their 'thesis' no matter what happens in the world… strange…
This guy on the one hand expects higher rates but then says high rates have been lighting an inferno in private credit. It doesn't add up unless he believes the gov/fed will intentionally cause a credit crisis.
Cash up, a train load of buying opportunities coming up….
Too much narrative. Apparently needed to "justify" contrarian positioning and draw attention.
Whole cesspit of corrupt to core stockmarkets, completely Manipulated by big banks. Banks just stealing all pension funds with the private credit Fraud and dumping, then Gating selling. Criminals with zero prosecutions.
Of course the usa is behind your selling all the metal to the bricks at rock bottom prices. Your not going to have enough sliver for world demands, and copper and the list go's on .god bless the comex 😅😅😅
0 just about every day you meddles gurus say that silver is about to fly up gold is about to fly up and every day for two weeks now steadily daily precious metals go down but you keep publishing the same thing this is why people do not respect you you're just people shilling a lot like the government the CIA or the deep State you're just putting out your own message…. Occasionally you are worthwhile
“tunnel rats” Veterans RPP 17 Pio Air Meda RAYM0ND According to Forecast International, WWABNCP/PACCS stands for Worldwide Airborne Command Post/Post Attack Command and Control System. Martial law Q WAR SEX Thailand RPP Pio Philippine's Q WAR SEX
-YOUR CLIENTS ARE WRONG BY MOVING OUT OF GOLD/SILVER…
-YOUR WRONG: IF AISC FOR A MINER IS 2000 WITH 15% DEISEL BUMP ITS 2300 …HISTORICALLY, OIL SURGES ARE ALWAYS MET WITHIN 3 MONTHS BY MINERS EXPLODING IN PRICE…’ITS THE INFLATION, UNCERTAINTY & PRINTING/DEBASEMENT STUPID’ THAT PROPELS METALS
-STOP MISINFORMING THE AUDIENCE
So 🤔 you’re saying inflation may be sticky? Like gum on the floor?
“tunnel rats” Veterans RPP 17 Pio Air Meda RAYM0ND According to Forecast International, WWABNCP/PACCS stands for Worldwide Airborne Command Post/Post Attack Command and Control System. Martial law Q WAR SEX Thailand RPP Pio Philippine's Q WAR SEX
Diesel hurts low-grade, particularly depth.You got good grade on the surface diesel , don't hurt