A recession is almost a near certainty now, according to Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass.
People are just not prepared for what’s coming next, Peccatiello told David Lin, Anchor for Kitco News.
Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV (
Follow Kitco News on Twitter: @KitcoNewsNOW (
Follow Alfonso Peccatiello: @MacroAlf (
Visit The Macro Compass Newsletter:
0:00 – Recession concerns
5:25 – Recession indicators
9:00 – Labor market
14:30 – How severe is the next recession?
17:20 – This recession is similar to the 1980s
19:35 – Will Fed succeed in fighting inflation today?
21:14 – Recession or inflation?
23:55 – When to invest again
26:35 – Asset allocation
29:20 – Gold
30:30 – Bitcoin
#recession #economy #inflation
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42 Comments
Plenty of unemployed, will work for food.
Thank you !
Inflation bud. A recession can be ridden if one is smart enough to have a good emergency fund but inflation just eats up the fund and businesses cannot always hand out more money as they also are being torn up by inflation.
Really great interview. Incredible info. Thank You🙏
Your assumption that increasing prices will equal higher wages (i.e. employers will pass the benefit of higher prices to employees, has been shown to be false; they won't/don't on average).
Alfonso is great….wouldn't you say, Daaaveed?
Biden policies are causing shortages which increases inflation
Bitcoin nothing more than a light on the screen. Turn the power off and you have nothing.
Watched this a couple of Times and really have to say this is some of the Best content available about the economic outlook on YT. My conclusions are that we are just seeing a maybe bit stronger bear Market ralley now. Before SP 500 will Further drop, latest end of this year. Due to the supply restrictions in the Labor Market, a very gradual increase of unemployment is likely. Therefore I expect a bear Market that lasts a bit longer, with only minor returns. Thanks guys!!
Alfonso is an incredible guest. He appears to have good instincts. Get him on the regular please!
I agree. $BTC probably going to hit $12k. This would be the same % drop it did in 2018.
Alf is awesome! He’s definitely very intelligent and he really seems to be an honest, caring person as well. Very rare in today’s world. So good to see!
Powerful knowledge, thanks guys
GDP growth during a lockdown year. You can hear that that data is fake correct mr guru?
Bitcoin will probably see some more downside, but when the fed pivots it will moon.
Alfonso the permabear lol
Pretty sound analysis, wish to hear more from this guy!
Great video
This may be the dumbest person I've ever heard talk. The fact he can tie his shoes in the morning is a miracle
No, sure looks like 20,000 and 30,000 were goo d buys on bitcoin and the dow. This is where you make money. This is the way money has always been made, although I don't like bitcoin for myself. Business and commerce is strong. People are packing stadiums, movie theaters, restaurants…I know doom and gloom gets the hits here on YouTube, but I think you're wrong.
crypto is just as much of a pyramid scheme as meme stocks IMO
Depression not recession!
Savings rate has been low and dropping since stagflation of the 1970s. "Use it or lose it." Savings accounts have yielded negative returns relative to inflation almost every year since. This is a hard claim to prove, given the under-estimate that the establishment uses took energy prices out of the calculation of inflation back in the '70s or early '80s.
I don't think ANYone believes the widely reported 9.1% inflation rate.
pleasant and smiling. Great to see with such grim news.
Outstanding interview by both speakers. The interviewer was a superstar in this post. Well done guys.
Anyone else wanna trade precious metals again? id'e gladly take silver as payment, this green butt paper is becoming fucking worthless.
Worthless Asian coin.
gets his previous btc call wrong… then why do we care about his next one……..????
Mr sky is falling man….. blar blar blar
How about increase supply….
Lack of savings could also be that people have taken it out of the banking system…
Thanks Biden.
If Peter Schiff could just have 2 seconds of interview time here at the end, he would say $0.
Pls, Do keep Mr. Peccatiello more frequent because his info and knowledge were extremely important, to all investors. this person is a wealth of knowledge! thank you, Kitco
thank you. pls have Alf on again!
David is always so well prepared and very sharp.
use of credit cards will be a huge problem exacerbated by interest increases. people are financing gas and food!!
M Sayler selling 200k Btc would tank it to $10k easily
Two consecutive quarters of economic contraction is NOT the NBER definition of a recession. It is the Wall Street rule of thumb. As one NBER paper points out, the Wall Street definition totally misses the 2001 recession which featured 3 non – consecutive quarters of contraction.
They expect 9% growth this year because they know the fed is not actually serious about fighting inflation. Sure all these indicators are pointing to a recession, but that can change if the fed decides to start printing money again. They need to choose between a catastrophic deflationary crash or hyper inflation. The path of least resistance is to keep printing. Can you imagine the chaos that would ensue in a deflationary crash? Most americans life savings are in index funds.
The labor market is rejecting non-gainful employment. You cannot accept work that doesn't pay basics: housing, food, utilities, transportation, etc.
So people just keep moving to one job to the next. Wages are not rising to meet inflation they're tepid and lots of gimmicks by employers like new hire bonuses just don't cut it.
Magic beans 🫘