In this exclusive Outlook 2026 special, David Rosenberg, President of Rosenberg Research, joins Jeremy Szafron to dismantle the “Soft Landing” narrative and expose the massive disconnect between Wall Street pricing and Main Street reality. While the S&P 500 hits record highs, Rosenberg presents forensic data showing that the U.S. economy has already entered a “silent” contraction that is being masked by government hiring and a stock market bubble.
THE “NO HIRE” ECONOMY: Rosenberg reveals that beneath the headline payroll numbers, the “hiring rate” has collapsed to cycle lows—a dynamic he calls “No Hire, No Fire.” He explains why official government data is masking a real-time contraction of 20,000 jobs per month and why the “AI Lifeline” that kept the economy afloat in 2025 has finally snapped.
THE 6TH MEGA BUBBLE: With the Shiller PE ratio hitting 40x, Rosenberg warns we are witnessing the “6th Mega Bubble of the last 100 years.” He breaks down why legendary investors like Warren Buffett are sitting on a record $400 billion cash pile and Jamie Dimon is buying Treasuries, signaling that the “Smart Money” has already exited the casino while retail investors go “all in.”
Recorded December 19 2025
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Follow David Rosenberg on X: @EconguyRosie (
This Outlook 2026 episode is sponsored by Discovery Silver. Discovery is combining high-quality gold-producing assets in Canada with one of the world’s largest undeveloped silver deposits in Mexico. Learn more at ()
IN THIS EPISODE:
-The “Wealth Illusion”: Why the top 10% of earners are the only thing keeping the U.S. economy from a depression.
-The Credit Wall: How rising delinquencies and the refinancing cliff in 2026 will hit small businesses.
-The Japan Pivot: Why the Bank of Japan’s rate hike changes the game for global liquidity.
-The Defensive Playbook: Why Rosenberg is long Gold, Energy Infrastructure, and Bonds for 2026.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
01:33 Stock Market Dynamics and Consumer Spending
07:30 Valuation Metrics and Market Bubbles: The “6th Mega Bubble”
16:24 Small Business Challenges and Economic Dichotomies
22:51 Private Credit and Refinancing Risks
25:31 Rising Fixed Costs: The “Quiet Tax” on Households
28:15 Labor Market Dynamics and Inflation
28:53 The Wage-Price Spiral vs. Reality
29:49 Consumer Spending and Cost Increases
31:06 Global Liquidity and Japan’s Economic Policies
33:54 Understanding Liquidity and Market Sentiment
35:09 Gold and Precious Metals Outlook for 2026
38:57 Energy Infrastructure and Natural Gas Strategies
40:56 Investment Risks and Market Sentiment for 2026
#DavidRosenberg #Recession2026 #WarrenBuffett #StockMarketCrash #Gold #Economy #KitcoNews #Investing #LaborMarket #SP500 #MarketOutlook #WealthTransfer #CentralBanks
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50 Comments
This guy has been calling for a recession for past 10 years. Every year he is proven wrong but he gets invited in these shows and eventually he will be right and take victory laps.
As an American…tariffs are bad. It takes DECADES to undo what they spent the last 40 years doing to the manufacturing sector in the US. What would have made much more sense if he wanted to put in tariffs is to be targeted and not just blanket everyone with them. Certainly our strongest trading partners should have had a tiny (if any) tariff put on them (Canada and Mexico). You can tell very little thought was put into the tariffs and how they were rolled out and on top of DOGE destroying the functionality of government and you can just see why the trade talks are ongoing forever because Trump wants to get the (wins) accolades for doing "good" deals but he doesn't want to talk about the hard realities of what deals he is actually creating. He is also over reaching with what he can do and trying to constantly reach more with what power he has and that is going to create chaos at some point. It's very damaging in the short and intermediate term but now folks can see why it's important to have strong leaders in place (neither Trump or Harris were good choices) but whether folks actually learn the lesson and vote for actual leaders instead of what is available and put up by the 2 parties which are mostly just terrible power hungry self aggrandizing clowns looking for gotcha moments rather than lead the country and the Government.
Wir stehen vor einer Katastrophe im Westen .Nur physisches Gold und Silber rettet dich.
give free money to companies and THEN bail them out?
I'm sorry but where did the money go then?
Ask David to buy a better mic at Walmart for 6 dollar. Is it too much to pay…? ❤
47:17. Duh we’re all in. It’s because inflation is too hot. We’re losing buying power like crazy. It’s not complacency
I wish I had a button to create a stock market crash; it just never comes.
Nice job fellas.
So, the 1% is buying stuff like it was 1999 and they all buy products that ONLY the uber wealthy can afford. Businesses that specialize by catering to the rich are thriving . Main Street is literally dying all across America. The poor and less poor (used to be called the middle class until Reagan fired PATCO enmas , destroying the Labor Unions …… took awhile but ol Contra Ron had it going on 45 years ago) but I digress. Back then we had Civil Rights, the RICH PAID TAXES ……. 50% which was ONLY FAIR. Merry Christmas .
Thank you gentlemen & kitco for helping all. Merry Christmas&Seasons greetings….Blessings during the holidays and all the year through to all🙏🏼❄️❄️
Sounds like a Trump detractor if not a Trump hater. The things he is pointing to now as indicative of economic problems all existed during Biden's term and were arguably worse during the Biden years. AI definitely has the potential of being the engine driving the next paradigm shift. Missing out on that is too risky. Not too long ago Jeremy had a guest who pointed out the recession of 22 and 23 was avoided because of 12 and more likely 20 million illegals that had to housed. healed and fed.
Thanks Jeremey and David. Excellent podcast.
Great interview!!
Approximately, the richest 10% of people in the USA own the majority of the stock market. Let's not kid ourselves. The average man in the street owns a fraction I want to see the whole of Wall Street go down the tubes. NO BAILOUTS with taxpayer's MONEY.
The sooner the S&P goes South, the BETTER. I want to see All the investors on Wall Street SCREWED
NO BAILOUTS. IT IS TIME!
lol…. so the wealth that is increasing the most is the one that has the least taxes? great… that'll pay for stuff.
Amazing interview David is such a smart guy and explains things so well!
NobodySpecialFinance has been writing about Ai Tech Grifting for 2 years. Jeremy, please interview Jack at Nobody Special.
Thank you, and, love your suit!
The "Happy New Year" wish at the end of another 10/10 interview was disappointing. People are afraid to say "Merry Christmas".
the economy's already broken there just not telling anyone
David Rosenberg – the sky is faillling!!! the sky is faillling!!! the sky is faillling!!! the sky is faillling!!! the sky is faillling!!!
"Real time electricity costs…"
WTF is that?
Verbage, verbal garbage!!
We're already in a recession
Sometimes you look at news, market storming, but on mevolaxy everything calm. Feels like living in another world
See you in 2026!
The guy needs to mix in a little bit of English with all these technical terms
Your completly wrong about the recession. Defense sector stocks usually thrive in recessions due to a rise in uncertainty. Defense spending rises in a recession.
Also silver and gold stocks usually hold as well. Especially silver.
We're in a Crack up Boom! That explains the high stock market price with dismal earnings.
Great guest ❤
The “Trump Tarriffs” still sting Morth of the boarder.
US Trade deficits 2024
Vietnam $123 Billion Mexico $171 Billion
Europe $235 Billion
China $295 Billion
We’re going to have people doing wonderful things! That’s what we’re going to have. Get out of your ivory towers and meet some of them. There’s not much for me to learn from this guy. Probably bumping out.
Same ole same! Those who steal our taxes daily, won’t feel the collapse! And it’s a collapse! Depression!!!
Nice❤❤
Fantastic discussion
Rosie, we love you but its $29Trillion since 2002🎉🎉🎉😊 #trumpsMarketsCrash
There is a significant level of fragility, withing the economy and every aspect of equities investing, much more than usual. One must play accordingly.
We Def Need to Be Asking: WWWBD…..Just Follow Warren, Kick Back and Have a Diet Coke
Jeremy is great.
David has his story to tell. Tariffs, for example. I'm searching for any pre-2025 interviews where he was highly critical of the 200%+ Canadian tariffs on U.S. dairy and poultry or the 150%+ Canadian tariffs on eggs. Surely if 10% tariffs are so unfair there are plenty of examples of David complaining about the trade-killing Canadian tariffs that existed prior to 2025.
This is the same prediction from 5 years back.
Let the guest talk more without a b or c questions. Saves a lot of time and waffle.
❤❤❤❤
Jamie dimon has been wrong a lot the last decade
So 2026 will be another double digit up year got it
The stock market won't let the economy down; Trump controls EVERYTHING. The economy is booming; it's the golden age … rates are coming down, the US dollar is falling down, the price of oil is disintegrating, the inflation is slowing, the prices of gold and silver and platinum are climbing, crypto coins are a Trump's family business, and AI keeps it all airtight.
Life is energy, Merry Christmas
S&P is not the economy!
That is just one of best intro's I ever heard, bravo to whoever made that!
Tq
The trades have definitely seen an uptick in job creation due to data center buildout and Japan is making good on the beginning of its pledge of usa investment. This will likely be in the nuclear industry. So i expect more jobs are on their way with other foreign investment obligations.
The stock market is so propped up it’s criminal