The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% as markets priced a greater than 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike. David Rosenberg says the market may be making a much bigger mistake by assuming the Fed will keep going.
Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, joins Kitco News anchor Jeremy Szafron to explain why he questions the latest payroll and core CPI readings, why slowing wage growth complicates the inflation narrative and why an oil shock is not necessarily durable inflation.
He also explains why he is buying 10-year Treasuries at 5%, what could trigger a major short-covering rally in bonds and why he believes the U.S. dollar is entering a long-term bear market. The conversation covers gold’s resilience, hard assets and the investment thesis behind the newly launched ROSY ETF with Corton Capital.
Recorded September 14 2026
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00:00 The 10-Year Hit 5% Right Before the Fed Decides
02:29 Why He Says the Jobs and CPI Numbers Look Spurious
04:51 This Isn’t Inflation, It’s an Oil Shock
08:50 The One Number He Says Settles It
11:20 Why a Rate Hike Is Just the Fed Flexing
17:14 He Agrees the Fed Is Repeating the ECB’s 2008 Mistake
20:24 Why He’s Buying Treasuries at 5%
23:39 The Treasury’s Hidden Power Over Your Yields
31:01 Why Gold Is His Long-Term Dollar Hedge
36:11 Why He Owns Tangible Assets You Can Touch
39:33 Why He Put 40 Years of Research Into a Fund
48:14 Why You Shouldn’t Judge a Portfolio Day to Day
#DavidRosenberg #FederalReserve #TreasuryYields
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34 Comments
At a 5% 10-year yield, are you buying Treasuries, or do you believe yields move even higher after the Fed? Tell us why.
Nobody is going to lock up their money for 30 years at a paltry 5% return. Especially when the S&P is projecting 12%.
Bonds need to go over 10% yield to attract investors.
might be time to get this guy on to tell him publicly – he's no longer welcome on kitco – nor to be taken serious again. @ScrapGoldExpert
2 weeks ago
he's joking.
I business and personal consult – lone guy in the midwest – makes an entire Research Group look like an antique train wreck.
I'm sure that's working out for him now.
Bond investing: When there's blood in the streets, choose to be taken prisoner.
New bignar 🎉❤🎉❤🎉❤
Never!! Yields are heading towards 10% and probably then to 20% !!!!
At 5% rate on a US10Y is not what wealth managers are doing with their clients' money. Even with concocted nominal inflation numbers, which bias to the low side, the real return is sub-par. Also, if rates double, they are stuck with unrealized losses for years possibly, or until US debt is a good buy. I know this, and I am no economist. Mr. Rosenburg is gilding the lily.
This guy is a lunatic. He's never been to a grocery store or gas station. He must work for Trump.
wait until it's 6%, just around the corner.
This guy is looking to all metrics to explain inflation, but the one that really metters: M2 . They know they are printing. They need inflation and printing. Even lagard says there will be inflation… I sure she does not want to say that…
He claims inflation between 2 and 3 percent isn't a big deal, but it in fact is when it's been that way for years, following a period of 9+ percent inflation. That all stacks on prices. What an out of touch claim that was.
So whiny. Ugghhh
The U.S. heading for insolvency and jokers saying 5% is good. 😂
Boycotting everything USA, Canadians and Europeans get out of US securities and treasuries, bring your retirement money home
no doubt he's talking his book, but you can have false assumptions and true conclusions
15 September, to find enough buyers to clear the $13 billion supply of 20y T-Bonds, the auction yield reached 5.42%. This is their highest yield since 1986. Primary dealers had to absorb nearly 17% of the auction. The Fed is a passenger
America is technically bankrupt – even at 💯 return I would not touch US bonds as in the long term that money is gone. Invest in lost cause – no thanks
Could this all be a scam to give the rich a chance to buy bonds at high interest rates before the stock market crashes?
So one part of the US government is going to print money to pay the deficit and debt, thus increasing the money supply and increasing inflation — and another part of the government is going raise interest rates to decrease the inflation.
No
David Rosenberg: when has this guy ever been right?
lol asbs lol.
Is blocking your nose stronger than holding your nose?
The job numbers are complete BULLSHIT!
2023 THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS HAD 1,000,000 JOBS REMOVED IN JANUARY 2024
2024 THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS HAD 1,000,000 JOBS REMOVED IN JANUARY 2025
2025 THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS HAD 1,000,000 JOBS REMOVED IN JANUARY 2026
Compute the value of this promise when the 10-yr is at 7%. The paltry yield won't begin to cover your losses. Fiat money is collapsing – worst advice I've heard in quite a while.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Excellent and informative interview Jeff, your interview skills have improved exponentially since you started on Kitco, thank you 🙏 for bringing on David
Abolish the Fed.
Bravo pour la qualité des analyses ..
Yield curve is flattening. Hunker.
No matter what they do, the house of cards will still fall.
If we are not seeing true inflation, then we must be experiencing corporate greed. Call it what you want , grocery prices continue to increase dramatically. Many items have DOUBLED in price over the past 18 – 24 months. Hardly 4% inflation… Corporate profits are through the roof, Beef cattle prices to the rancher are an insult to their hard work. On top of that Trump is bringing in beef from Argentina and Brazil. The cost savings will go to the meat packers, none of the savings will go through to the consumer. The economy is a joke!
These morons prescribe rate hikes for emerging markets when inflation remains stubborn but the same morons will change tone when inflation gets embedded in US.