Aaron Dishner of The Better Traders breaks down why Bitcoin’s recent drop may not be the true capitulation bottom, despite classic signals like heavy volume and sharp downside wicks. Looking at past bear markets and on-chain data from Glassnode, Dishner shows that key indicators, including the MVRV-Z score, Puell Multiple, and realized price, have not yet reached the capitulation zones that historically mark cycle lows.
Dishner warns that what many traders view as strong support may actually be “artificial,” pointing to repeated breakdowns where key levels fail one by one. “The reality is that bear markets can last a lot longer than the bulls can hold out hope,” he says. With downside targets at $60K, $49K, and potentially $38,555, he outlines how macro pressure and forced selling from digital asset treasuries could drive the next leg lower.
Recorded April 12, 2026
00:00 – Has Bitcoin Bottomed Yet?
00:05 – Capitulation Signals: What We Just Saw
01:10 – On-Chain Data Says Not Yet
01:29 – MVRV Z-Score Still Not at Lows
02:22 – Multiple Indicators Flash Warning
03:12 – Realized Price and Accumulation Zone
04:23 – Weekly Chart: Resetting the Trend
04:46 – “Artificial” Support Levels Explained
06:55 – 2025 Breakdown: Supports Failing
08:12 – Macro Risks and Digital Asset Treasuries
10:25 – Bitcoin Price Targets: $60K to $38K Scenario
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