“The ECONOMY Is Going BUST” | Matthew Piepenburg
The U.S. economy is facing a hidden debt crisis that makes growth ‘mathematically impossible,’ warns Matthew Piepenburg. Matthew Piepenburg, partner at Von Greyerz and author of Rigged to Fail and Gold Matters, analyzes October’s weak job growth, third-quarter GDP slowdown to 2.8%, and rising inflation, as reflected in the core PCE index’s 2.7% year-over-year increase.
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CREDIT:
Matthew Piepenburg (https://vongreyerz.gold)
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7 Comments
I can't fault most of what you're saying, but 2 possible mitigants to a standard economic crash need to be taken into account, i think. 1) Demographics. When we talk historical trends as reference points and mean reversion, we like to use "all things being equal" simplfication, just so we can illustrate the impact of a certain factor. But right now we're in the midst of a boomer-to-Gen-X-to-Millennial wealth transfer and asset transfer (and hence revaluation, where similar assets can have different utility to each demographic). So you can get Wile E. Coyote hovering over a cliff's edge longer than seems possible or rationale because one demographic is willing to overpay for an asset (someone in spender mode, child rearing mode, work from home mode) than would an older generation. So that's one possible distortion you have to consult before you try to apply historical analogs.
2) COVID may seem like boring old news, but it represented an unthinkable economic lurch, with commensurately bizarre fiscal and monetary actions. It's another factor that roils economic historical analogs, because rarely do you see such lurches with the end result that the crisis essentially utterly disappears. That's one reason your analogy of England between the wars is faulty. Because the global economy (developed world) lurched like bombs were going off overhead, but when it (COVID) was over, there was no real property damage, no lost infrastructure that paralyzed economic activity going forward.
I dont pretend to be insightful enough to predict the exact scale or the orientation of the impact of these factors (bullish or bearish). But I think you need to include them in your analysis and correct for them – – rather than jump to the conclusion that we've been irretrievably unmoored from fundamentals, so the only outcome is a standard crash.
I totally don't expect unilateral smooth sailing. Some market segments (industries, financial classes) will have crises. But I'd use as a reference point something like the collapse of Long Term Capital Management in the late 1990s: it took the financial markets, briefly, to the edge of global calamity; it was foreseen and appropriately managed; the winners and losers weren't perversely unjust; the markets recovered and now it's barely a blip in anyone's memory.
So I propose we may be in for a series of LTCM-style breakdowns. Or relatively isolated crises (remember the PIIGS?). But I'm not sure unilateral disaster is in the cards, because I don't think real wealth is necessarily in the process of being destroyed.
(You can totally "what about?" me on a huge fragment of stock market wealth residing in a handful of stocks. I have NO answer for that!)
Juicy News 🍊🍉🍇🫐🥕🍅🫗🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🐒🦍🦧
For those who are not familiar with the BIS the Bank of International Settlement read, Tower of Basel, the shadowy history of the secret bank that runs the world. by Adam Lebor.
Frightening stuff. Higher interest rates are just reality!
Someone said "when all the incentives lineup who needs a conspiracy" the US will ruin its own economy.
#audit the Fed
Fed as private bank needs more money from slaves!!