Graphics by: Samuel Yap / INQUIRER.net
MANILA, Philippines — From being a mere rendezvous point on regular resupply missions in a nearby military outpost at Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal, the Escoda (Sabina) Shoal is emerging as a new flashpoint in the West Philippine Sea in 2924 as China intensified its aggression in Philippine waters.
In a bid to prevent another Beijing takeover, like what happened in Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal in 2012 which led to a historic international tribunal ruling heavily in favor of Manila, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) anchored its biggest multirole response vessel in Escoda in April.
BRP Teresa Magbanua was the longest-deployed PCG ship in the West Philippine Sea until it left the area in September partly as a result of Chinese blockade of supplies.
“This has been one of the surprise developments of 2024,” said West Philippine Sea monitor Ray Powell in a message to INQUIRER.net.
Magbanua arrived in Puerto Princesa port on Sept. 15 with four dehydrated crewmen who subsisted on rice porridge and rainwater weeks earlier as China Coast Guard (CCG) managed to repeatedly thwart the delivery of supplies to the PCG crewmen.
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READ: WPS: Should PH anchor another ship in Sabina Shoal? Experts weigh in
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This handout photo grabbed from a video released by the Philippine Coast Guard on June 7, 2024 shows Philippine Coast Guard divers and marine scientists surveying part of Sabina shoal in the waters of South China Sea. – The Philippine Coast Guard said on June 7, that Chinese boats “harassed” their vessel during a medical evacuation last month of a Filipino soldier, who was stationed on a remote outpost in the South China Sea. (Photo by Handout / Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) / AFP) / – NO Editorial use – NO Marketing campaign / – NO EDITORIAL USE – NO MARKETING CAMPAIGN / —–EDITORS NOTE — RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY CREDIT “AFP PHOTO / PHILIPPINE COAST GUARD ” – NO MARKETING – NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS – DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS /
“China has made the decision to deny Philippine government vessels entry into Sabina Shoal since the departure of the BRP Teresa Magbanua in September 2024,” Powell, a retired US Air Force colonel and the program head of Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said.
“The Philippines has continued to probe around Sabina Shoal since that time, but thus far China has not relaxed its quarantine,” he continued.
Overreaction
This drastic move comes as Chinese state publication Global Times accused the Philippines of turning BRP Teresa Magbanua into a “semi-grounded” base in Escoda Shoal, similar to what it said was done in the case of BRP Sierra Madre, a Philippine Navy warship intentionally grounded at Ayungin Shoal to serve as a Phillippine outpost.
“It’s not clear to me that China planned to seize Sabina Shoal,” Powell said. “It overreacted to the deployment and anchoring of the BRP Teresa Magbanua in April, and created an imperative by its strong rhetoric.”
“By painting it as a ‘quasi-grounding’ akin to the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin Shoal China essentially left itself with no choice but to deny Philippine access,” Powell said.
“This has been a setback for the Philippines, of course, but also has stretched China’s self-imposed sea control task over a much larger area than before. That creates its own problems and vulnerabilities,” Powell continued.
CCG’s blockade was so intense that the Philippine military resorted to airdropping supplies for the Magbanua crew in August, when Beijing’s actions became more escalatory.
At that time, CCG vessels attacked with water cannons a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessel and also subjected BRP Cape Engaño and BRP Bacagay to what the PCG deem as aggressive maneuvers while the Philippine vessels were traversing waters off the shoal, damaging both ships.
Read: China ships ram, blast water at BFAR vessel
CHINA ATTACKS China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel 4202 drenches the BRP Datu Sanday with its water cannon blasts, which at times threaten to break the windows of the vessel run by the Bureau of Fisheries and
Aquatic Resources (BFAR), while CCG ship 21551 takes its turn ramming the BFAR ship during the attack by China’s vessels at Escoda (Sabina) Shoal in ths file photo taken in August 2024. —INQUIRER file photo / NESTOR CORRALES
Prior to this, Commodore Jay Tarriela, PCG spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, noted that the agency had never had a tough time sending supplies to Magbanua.
“The Chinese feared Filipino military strategy that by grounding another naval asset in Sabina Shoal would be a defeat on their side which happened in Ayungin Shoal,” security expert Chester Cabalza told INQUIRER.net.
Cabalza, president and founder of Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation, also remarked that Escoda Shoal is the “missing link in the Chinese occupancy” of the West Philippine Sea.
“If they succeed in their conquest, they can control Ayungin Shoal and Reed Bank just like what they did in Bajo de Masinloc,” Cabalza said, referring to another local term for Panatag Shoal.
Continuous tensions
Cabalza said due to its strategic importance to China, Escoda Shoal will remain a hotspot of tension in the West Philippine Sea for years to come.
This tension, he stressed, is expected to further intensify in light of a Donald Trump presidency with his hawkish Cabinet picks signaling the emergence of hardline anti-China policies.
“Sabina Shoal has been marked down now as a hotspot,” Cabalza said.
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“It would trigger expected intensity as Trump returns to power in which Washington will have further stake in the region,” he said. “Brace for more legal twists and grey zone movements in Sabina Shoal and the entire West Philippine Sea.”
