Is the Fed’s dovish pivot a trap? Stephanie Pomboy sits down with Jeremy Szafron to break down Jerome Powell’s landmark Jackson Hole speech, why the market’s celebration is disconnected from reality, and how a “corporate debt bomb” threatens to derail the economy. The interview digs into Powell’s “irrelevant” framework, the data showing the consumer has been in “recession since COVID,” the truth behind the jobs numbers, and how to position across gold, energy, and equities in an era of fiscal dominance. Stephanie also flags one under-the-radar indicator that no one can fudge: corporate tax receipts.
Key topics:
– Powell’s pivot: a trap? Why a 92% chance of a rate cut may be a warning sign
– The Fed’s “irrelevant” framework and the end of a policy era
– The corporate debt bomb: $13 trillion set to roll over at higher rates
– Consumer reality: record credit delinquencies and the “recession since COVID”
– The jobs report’s “statistical shenanigans” versus the real labor market
– Fiscal dominance: is the Fed now secondary to the Treasury’s borrowing needs?
– The K-shaped economy: Mag 7 profits versus small business anxiety
– Positioning: the bull case for energy, precious metals, and miners
– Gold vs. stocks: why gold is winning in “real terms”
– The dollar’s future in a world of monetary policy divergence
– One indicator to watch: corporate tax receipts are flashing red
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01:01 Analyzing Powell’s Speech
02:35 Impact on Interest Rates and Economy
04:30 Tariffs and Inflation Concerns
07:54 Corporate Debt and Profitability
19:14 Political Developments and Fed Independence
24:48 Global Monetary Policy Divergence
26:11 Investment Strategies in a Stagflationary Environment
Read Stephanie’s research at MacroMavens: (
#Fed #Recession #Gold #Inflation #StephaniePomboy
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28 Comments
Stephanie Pomboy's reveal of the 'one data point no one can fudge' (corporate tax receipts) was a powerful moment in this interview.
What was your single biggest takeaway from this conversation? Let us know in the replies below.
Trump was not elected to break up nato, attack. Our neighbors, tariff all imports and control the us economy
Thank you for another great interview, as always.
THIS PODCAST SHOULD COME WITH A DISCLAIMER …KITCO IS A METAL TRADING PLATFORM..it’s difficult to be unbiased if you are one PLEASE BE TRANSPAREN
Great interview and analysis. Great interview as always, Jeremy, and I always appreciate Stephanie's wicked smart perspective and experience.
Tariffs SHOULD hit corporate margins , because they can well AFFORD IT!!! and if they cant . Corporations are ALWAYS in a better position for DEBT than many consumers! Plus the CORPORATIONS are the ones that ALWAYS benefit 1st from the RATE CUTS !!! so please forgive me if i dont shed a tear for the Corporations and their plight with Tariffs!!!
yep it's like venture capital is gutting the country instead of just one company at a time.
i'm in love with stephanie
please stop the f ing ads. they just piss me off
I love Steph!!
Fantastic discussion
Excellent analysis
Thank you Sir
Thank you Ma'am
Well said!!
I always love listening to you
Thank you both
I love her mind 😊
Hearing that Avilom’s KYC-free approach is getting attention from exchange research teams.
This time is different….where have I heard that before??🤔🤔🤔
Stephanie looks like Syndrome’s secretary from the Incredibles movie.🤔 So uncanny.
If WAR erupts Fed cutting will be in the rear mirror.
The world economy seems to be having an issue. Sounds like they might have just let go of 52,000 Auto workers in Germany.
As I'm watching this I keep thinking about Ross Perot's Giant sucking sound speech.
END THE FED! Useless Department!
Look at the people they are going after with the "mortgage fraud" and tell me how high and mighty the purpose of the Drumpf admin is. The purpose is control of the Fed in one case and retaliation against others who wanted to hold Trump accountable. Unbelievable. Very good advice on the economy and investments, but the blind spot for creeping autocracy continues among those in the financial sector.
great interview with Stephanie – thank you
Trump is the least credible, most blatantly political administration since Nixon, at least, if not Wilson.
If the stock market goes up 10% in one year and the value of the dollar drops 10% in the same year u gain nothing.
Job numbers are even lower, inflation is moving up, crypto is a scam, American dollar is weak and unstable and tariffs market is imploding
Where did you get this trump shill. I believe the guidance of Warren Buffett over this woman. Any day.
The tariffs are bad for the consumer
just noticed the earrings…Powell & Cook?
Those anybody know who recommended Powell to Trump?
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is facing allegations of mortgage fraud…all political now
You are a snake!