The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is testing 5.18%, fundamentally shifting the math for equities, credit, and the traditional 60/40 portfolio. While Wall Street continues to buy the AI tech dream, Oxbow Advisors Founder and Managing Partner Ted Oakley warns of a severe disconnect between the stock market and the real economy.
In this Kitco News exclusive, Oakley breaks down the risks of late-cycle complacency and explains why the passive bid keeping the S&P 500 afloat will eventually dry up. Oakley details the physical energy reality behind the $725 billion AI buildout, sharing exactly why institutions will soon be forced to buy energy stocks, and lists his top pipeline and driller stock picks. He also outlines his contrarian view on precious metals, explaining why gold may need a $500 drop to flush out momentum buyers before its next major leg higher, and reveals the gold and silver miners currently sitting at historic profitability spreads. Finally, Oakley shares his core wealth preservation rules for investors navigating a high-yield environment.
Recorded May 19, 2026
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CHAPTERS:
00:00 Markets Shifting
01:42 Bond Yields Break the Math
03:21 Fed Policy and Floating Rate Risk
05:29 Passive Investing and Late Cycle Complacency
09:22 AI Buildout Meets Commodity Reality
14:40 Energy Playbook and Stock Picks
22:13 Gold Pullback Setup
23:30 Spotting Momentum Washouts
25:07 Which Miners To Buy
27:36 Family Wealth Rules
29:15 Real Estate And Liquidity Events
37:35 Energy Mispricing Finale
#Investing #Gold #StockMarket #TedOakley #KitcoNews
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The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.
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21 Comments
You were right, Ted
So you guys can short the hell out of it
TRUMPFLATION ! COST FOR EVERYTHING GOING UP !!!
If I EVER hear another precious metals specialist claim that "soon the physical market will overwhelm the paper market," I'm going to hunt them down and bitch-slap them into the next galaxy. I'm so SICK of their stories, fairy tales, and empty promises.
Why exactly do momentum buyers need to be flushed out for prices to go higher? doesn't make sense.
The U.S. can't afford high yields on the long bonds. It will begin selling fewer of them in favor of selling more shorter-term bonds, but even those will be tough to finance in a flat economy and with most ordinary people hurting.
Well yes it’s happened, dropped another 100$ today.
I hate to call someone stupid ,but gold is down over 1000.
solid interview fellas
500 bucks less? I'm there, even if its $500 more, I'm there too! Anything but bucks themselves!
Ted is the man to listen to.
00:15 'Global financial crisis' like it just happened
Ai is a total fraud. Anyone betting on it is going to lose big.
Energy is required by all of the AI stock plays. IMO this is often ignored by the people who tout AI
Hahaha .. needs a $500 dollar flush!?. It needs to be repriced to its fundamental value vs paper garbage…. Around $100,000 per ounce… This guy is talking out of his a$$
Thank you for having Mr. Ted Oakley on again. Wise, humble and profoundly helpful Ted.
Gold’s already had a $1000 flush. From 5500 to 4500. It’s way undervalued due to paper gold contracts creating fake supply. It’s going higher whether everyone likes it or not because the dollar will continue to weaken.
Great chat.
"A DRAGON iS;Z’ NOT A SLAVE"
With $39Tn debt, smart money is rushing to safe havens; no drop n gold or markets until that plays out. Lots wishing gold and quities would drop so they could get in…. not because it's overvalued but because they regret being slow. Bond markets will set rates more and the Fed' less and less, and the trajectory is up. With even a small rise, $39Tn servicing suddenly spirals
Why another flush? We had one from 5,500 to 4,100: considering the speed of that flush all weak hands are gone. It is also a fallacy to believe that participants who exit the market help drive the price up. More participants competing for a given number of trades typically increase the price of the trade: less participants weakens the price.