“The stock market is in bubble territory… and that signals danger,” warns Steve Hanke, a renowned economist and professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. In this episode of the 2025 Outlook Series, Hanke sits down with Daniela Cambone to discuss the global economy, trade policies, and the key risks shaping the year ahead.
Prof. Hanke predicts a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy in 2025, citing the contraction of the money supply and the pace at which it grew as key factors. He also critiques President-elect Donald Trump’s mercantilist trade policies, arguing that viewing trade as a “zero-sum game” will ultimately harm the U.S. economy. “It’s immoral for the government to be interfering with you and I who are voluntarily agreeing to you sell,” he states.
Turning his attention to Europe, Hanke highlights serious concerns about Germany’s faltering economy, calling it “in the tank big time” and cautioning about its potential to destabilize the broader European economy.
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📖 CHAPTERS:
0:00 U.S. economic slowdown
6:42 Recession
9:39 Tariffs
15:05 Trump’s trade policy
18:10 Trudeau
18:40 Enhancing government efficiency
25:05 The issues in the EU
30:51 Italy’s SpaceX security deal
35:35 Red flags for 2025
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32 Comments
Solid interview. I knew that after him speaking to truth regarding Trump and CO’s inexperience in economics and uneducated policy approach – that there would be MAGA defenders and sycophants in comments. These folks will be hurt most. FAFO
I scrolled through your videos and saw Hanke. Good choice. Subscribed but make sure you bring him back often, and similarly intelligent guests!
This guy is a moron.
I will answer the question professor, I would prefer the USA made cup.
The GST (VAT) is just theft of money from the taxpayer to feed the salaries and pensions of the government bureaucrats. Big government needs to be paid and they don't produce anything.
Yeah, I dont think this is a bubble, at least not an everything bubble. There is definitely some exuberance but it is not at all widespread and is mostly isolated to mag7 and some lame AI stocks. Outside of that, the market has been largely predictable based on how the economic outlook has been. I get that using the word 'bubble' is getting some clicks, but Im not exactly stressed out about our situation atm.
daniela the point is that it's up to the customer to determine which cup he wants.
lol trump has never promoted crypto, he only encouraged "mining" crypto, also he was running for president at the time…Trump is for the US dollar and the crypto gurus will be in for a shocker. I'm South African btw lol
Great interview.
The recession will come once all the bears have capitulated. That’s Rosenberg and Hanke now.
The plastic cup is a great example. What are the greatest incentives? We're so busy skirting regulations to give an answer to that very good question.
So here's the rub: It is reported that the U.S. is adding one trillion dollars to its debt every 100 days. That makes 3.65 trillion more in debt each year.
The current on-balance-sheet debt is about 36.5 trillion dollars. So, we are adding 10% to our debt this year. We are told that inflation is between 3% and 4%. Now, I'm not saying that inflation and debt are so intimately correlated, but I can't help but think that adding 10% to the national debt in a relatively benign environment can only be remedied in one of two ways. The first is raising taxes tremendously and instituting an austerity budget. THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN.
The second remedy is to inflate the money supply and pay our creditors with less valuable money. Of course, this only works if buyers of debt are willing to keep buying our debt while being painfully aware that they are losing actual value at an ever increasing rate. The buyers are starting to turn away from that farce. They are buying gold instead. I anticipate that once main stream investors understand this reality, they will also put their money in permanent commodities. I do not think that pork bellies or frozen concentrated orange juice will be their commodity of choice. I have therefore invested heavily in precious metals miners.
Hasn't the manufacturing numbers been down in the usa for nearly a year? Manufacturing is not booming whats he talking about?
Don’t completely agree on the tariff argument. The VAT is just another tarriff on imports.
I admire Daniella for sitting through n listening to this 🧠
The future of robotics and racial epithets on social media platforms from angry, jobless caucasians is the future😂
The bull market is upon us more job losses
She should be on bnn
Excellent interview. Why do you think that the power in the West is being dismantled because of the lack of manufacturing? It looks like the East is becoming the global powerhouse. The West and the East should make friends with each other.
Thank you for the lctio magistralis Professor and Daniela
What about loosening financial conditions and high liquidity in the system?
Maybe Daniela can help him burst the bubble 😂😂
EU was shocked and humiliated by Trump; and then it was followed up by the scary war tactics and threats of financial isolation and economic sanctions by the Biden Administration!?! 🤡🇺🇲
I swear to God, this time there is a wolf!
I pensel book by Lenard E. Reed, you best read that book!
Steve, its not just that there are no more nuclear powerstations operating in germany. They blew them up!
@ 19:00 – Remember Daniela's 12/20/24 interview with Rick Rule and David Stockton's book "The Truth of Politics" ….when the Swamp fights back.
Out of touch! De-dollarization (inflation) is ridiculous and getting worse.
Although Professor Hanke's assessment that a VAT tax is counterproductive, a national sales tax would be quite viable BUT only IF all income and investment taxes were eliminated. Tennessee has one of the best balanced budgets in the country and has NO income tax whatsoever, only a sales tax.
In States like Tennessee, everyone pays their fair share. The more you spend, the more you pay. This is what makes the sales tax the most equitable of any tax system.
Another issue that Professor Hanke did not address is the fact that the European Union doesn't have free trade, and this is a growing trend in the United States as well. everything is being monopolized. In the EU health care is monopolized and the criminal organization which runs the Medical Mafia of the United States has been systematically monopolizing every facet of health care and of health care finance for at least 40 years using a racketeering system called network contracts and the AMA's CPT/ICD coding systems.
The reason I bring up health care is that this segment impacts our economic situation more than ANY other industry.
Consider this…
Here in the United States, we have a grand total of 7,918 legislators on ALL levels, both Federal and State.
As of 2023, the United States GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is now an estimated $28.65 Trillion.
The United States health care system, which unarguably controls FULLY one sixth of the U.S. GDP, or $4.77 Trillion.
IF the health care system took just one-tenth of one percent (0.001%) of the money it controls and paid off all 7,918 legislators EVERY year, each and every legislator would receive nearly $3.62 Million each and every year.
This really puts things into perspective!
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Selective tariffs can support creation of critical resources I.e. steel, electronics.
More electric cars from china means fewer from the USA. Tariffs can reduce dumping and subsequent loss of us jobs