“The invisible bid that’s been propping up the entire developed world for a generation is vanishing in real time,” warns financial strategist Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich & Company. In today’s interview with Daniela Cambone, he details how Japan’s seismic shift away from its three-decade-long role as the world’s “money printer” is set to send shockwaves through the global economy.
Grandich breaks down the explosion of the “greatest carry trade in financial history,” explaining how for 30 years, Japan’s zero-interest policy artificially suppressed borrowing costs worldwide, fueling everything from cheap mortgages to sky-high stock multiples. “That single number just ended it,” he states, revealing how the end of Japan’s endless money printing is already impacting U.S. Treasury markets.
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46 Comments
Peter’s insights are spot on! I’m using InsiderSignal to track insider buys for a more informed investment strategy.
this was super interesting, never thought about it like this
didn't expect that from japan honestly
never knew finance could be so wild 😳
I find the insights on retirement savings essential. Tracking insider buys on InsiderSignal gives me more confidence.
so much info to take in but super interesting
makes me wanna learn more about finance
wow this is wild i had no idea
does this mean things are gonna get worse?
wow this really changes my view on things
i had no idea japan was doing all this
kinda freaked out about the future now 😳
Peter’s clarity is refreshing. I leverage InsiderSignal to focus on insider buying patterns for my portfolio.
didn't see this coming at all
i have no clue how this affects me lol
peter always has the most interesting takes
never knew it was this serious
Nobody SENDS us money through tariffs. Americans. Pay. The. Tariffs.
Hey at least USA didn't abduct their president
The carry trade is all anyone discusses on USD/JPY. But why did the yen get crushed (vs USD) when the BoJ raised rates? Answer – The real story is credit risk. And the BoJ emphasized its ongoing guarantee of negative real interest rates.
Interest rate differentials are not the whole story. Otherwise, why isn’t anyone talking about a carry trade that borrows in Swiss francs, where rates are at or near 0% going out 10 years (much lower than in Japan)?
Maybe the carry trade on the yen is $400 billion. Maybe it’s $50 billion. No one knows. And no one should care. The carry trade unwound in Aug 2024 and in April 2025. The story now is sovereign credit risk.
The Japanese government own’s half of its own debt. 2026 interest on this debt (“JGBs”) will exceed 35% of tax revenue if JGB rates stay where they currently are. Look at what’s happening to JGB 10, 30, and 40 year yields this year. They’re rising at an exponential pace. A sovereign debt crisis is brewing. Everyone (particularly Japanese savers and institutions) is demanding more interest before considering lending capital to a country with 260% debt to GDP.
If JGB holders (who are 95% Japanese citizens & institutions) demand a 4% yield on the JGB 10 year – it’s game over. There won’t be enough tax revenue to service the interest and the debt coming due (let alone have any social programs, or a military, or any government agencies). The 10 year JGB yield would likely go to 10%+ in days and the number of yen you can buy with 1 USD would skyrocket (perhaps to 400 USD / JPY?). This would be great for any unhedged participants in the carry trade (if any remain). But it would be a disaster for US stocks, and probably US treasuries as well. Japan is the US government’s largest creditor (holding approximately $1.2 trillion).
There’s too much currency and debt in the system. And Japan has been at the money printer for nearly 20 years longer than the rest of the world. People are finally pricing in credit risk on these “safe haven” investments. The idea of the world’s most indebted nation’s currency will significantly appreciate (against anything) because the world is entering recession is ridiculous.
So please don’t be like everyone else. Stop focussing on the carry trade and tell the real story – an impending sovereign debt crisis. It starts with Japan. And the yen won’t do well when it arrives.
I just heard yesterday that Warren Buffet has decided to sink a boat load of cash into Yen.
Your University Students , educated children are your wealth .
No American University Students should have any tuition or books or merited residency , debts . AMERICAN UNIVERSITY STUDENTS ARE THE AMERICAN NATION'S GOLD . GOT IT TRUMP ???
There is no difference in dying poor or dying rich .
Do you ever have good news
Now FED have started to lower rates, and printing money. They will save everybody and bring the market to heaven.
Things are good but gold. Things are bad buy gold. Good is illiquid. I’d suggest buying productive farm land before a crash
The United States is reaping what it sowed.
Japan is a country that produces and suffers from
As a gen x I don’t think we are at risk. I worry more for gen z.
Just just tinkering with an economic and financial system which has inherent shortcomings.
😮😮
Japan can rob China and Asia like it did in the 1940s to recover from its economic crisis, that's what its PM thinks.
Student loans are 23 percent of what? Sounds like BS to me
Hvad har usanerika givet verden ?
Lever på ryggen af alle og bombet resten.
Ha ha ha 🤣
He looks shattered haha
In the US, are people buying and holding physical gold in bank lockers or keeping it in their homes?
I can not eat bit coin or gold?
We all felt this kind of problem creeping upon us now or then. After all, we've been living on "borrowed wealth" for too long for generations.
I always wondered how the white-collar facade jobs (if not BS jobs) end up putting food on the table – it just didn't add up to me.
Bless up 🙏
Yes that rush of air you hear is not Trump farting,
its Trump's economy going down the drain! lololololololol
Thank you Daniella!
i have to say ,, it not about the white picket fence mate, it about not having to pay rent
My old song money money money . Gold and Silver is Money.
Markets are just fine 8 days later.
550% tariff…😀