Kitco News Anchor Jeremy Szafron sits down with Daniel Oliver, founder of Myrmikan Capital, to analyze the shifting mechanics of the global gold market and the approaching private credit cycle. Oliver argues that the smooth accumulation phase of the gold bull market is officially over. He details how the market is now entering a volatile second phase driven by stress spreading throughout the U.S. credit system.
During the interview, Oliver outlines the specific pressures facing the Federal Reserve. He highlights a $10 trillion maturity wall and explains the mathematical impossibility of the central bank shrinking its balance sheet while simultaneously attempting to lower interest rates. He further explains how the private equity industry’s massive leverage is setting a trap for policymakers, noting that printing money cannot solve underlying insolvency in sectors like commercial real estate.
The conversation also uncovers a hidden squeeze in the physical market. Oliver reveals how nervous banks are tightening margin requirements on smelters. This action forces these entities to shrink their processing pipelines, which directly restricts the physical gold supply entering the broader market and exacerbates price volatility.
Finally, Oliver unpacks the historical relationship between central bank balance sheets and gold reserves. By applying 19th-century banking standards to the modern financial system, he lays out the exact math that points to significantly higher gold valuations.
“Gold has to go to a price that rebalances the Fed’s balance sheet, and $8,000 currently gets you to about a third, $12,000 gets you around a half,” states Oliver.
Interview recorded on February 25, 2026.
00:00 Gold and Silver Update
01:15 Dollar Weaponization Shift
02:26 Stocks Priced in Gold
04:24 Real Time Inflation Pricing
06:59 Gold vs Silver Cycles
08:34 Why Silver Is Surging
11:31 Three Phase Gold Bull
14:58 Private Credit Bubble Risks
17:31 Liquidity and ETF Fragility
21:03 Fed Trapped on Rates
24:23 Debt Spiral and Politics
26:58 Unsustainable US Debt Math
28:29 Crash vs Slow Repression
28:44 Why Crashes Matter
30:00 Gold Supply Squeeze
33:38 Volatility and Leverage
35:16 Why Miners Lag Gold
38:59 What Sparks a Mania
44:21 Gold Versus Fed Balance
50:09 Digital Money Control Risks
52:50 Gold as Lifeboat
55:18 Closing Thoughts
#Gold #Silver #FederalReserve #DanielOliver #KitcoNews #Economy #Investing #Macroeconomics
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The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.
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23 Comments
Fed trapped by debt, private credit stress, and the math behind $12K gold.
What’s the bigger risk from here: a slow grind (financial repression) or a sudden break (credit event + Fed rescue)?
Drop ONE indicator you’re watching (yields, credit spreads, defaults, ETF flows, gold/silver) and tell us why. I’ll pull the best answers into the next interview.
Glint Pay. Hold your savings in allocated gold or silver and have a Master Card to buy stuff against it with only a 0.9% conversion cost.
good work
think of it this way: silver is the money of retail. gold is the money of wholesale.
Oliver had me until he started lauding Dear Leader for "knowing debt" intimately and being glad he's in power because he supposedly will know how to handle it. OMG how can such a smart guy be so gullible? Trump's chaotic treatment of the economy and the world has been EXACTLY the catalyst for gold and silver to soar these past 8 years. Yes, they would have reason to grow anyway, but Trump has supercharged them.
first i've heard Dan Oliver, more of him please
To say that Trump is the best guy to get us out of this because he knows debt and has gone bankrupt 6 times is the strangest sort of blind idiocy I’ve ever heard. God forbid we actually raise taxes and pay our bills. Was the tax code broken in 2000 when the Republicans told us we were paying down the debt too fast so we needed tax cuts?
good talk, some pearls here
Great analysis.
Thank you, Daniel and Jeremy. Very informative. As a former e-commerce entrepreneur in the health food industry in Sweden, I started investing in senior gold mines in 2016 and I still do every month. Kitco News is one of my most important sources of knowledge and is a joy to watch. All the best!
Wipe your own butt hole! Be responsible! Big kid USA ! 😅
It's noteworthy that Mr. Oliver consistently cites Democratic presidents for examples of government intrusion into the market and people's private financial lives. But he doesn't mention acts like President Nixon's abandonment of the gold standard, effectively devaluing our valuable dollar and thus lowering the value of the national debt. He isn't mentioning, so far, at least, the current efforts under Trump and his billionaire buddies to start issuing digital tokens which, eventually, are planned to replace our present currency.
Awesome interview!
So, if FDR interfered with the crashed stock market and its inherent mechanisms for flushing out the over valued assets and properly reprising those assets, why didn't the stock market recover for so many years afterwards? Bernanke certainly interfered with the painful but natural market mechanisms to reset the market and the market recovered a few years later pumped up with artificial money. FDR's market took a couple of decades to recover moderately.
Instead of having Trump as your example of being the right negotiator to manage the coming debt implosion-like Trump negotiated an end to Russia's war in Ukraine, right?- you could have used the example of the Good Steward as told in the Gospels (either Matthew or Luke ?), because that will be the way to manage the implosion. Remember, the Good Steward didn't enrich himself in the process of negotiating down the debts owed to his master; Trump and his family have already enriched themselves to the tune of $4 billion so far into his term as president.
This has to be one of the most insightful interviews I have listened to in a long while.
Dude's an imbecile 😂
When you say “change prices rapidly” you mean lower them, right….
Interesting discussion, but he lost me when he said that Trump, who increased our debt by 8 trillion in his first term was the man to solve our debt crises. That somehow the bankrupter of casinos and everything else he has touched was the man because he stiffed his creditors and employees in the past.
Awesome thank you 😁
So Lenin was right, he was just a hundred years too early
gold is a bad investment if bought above 2k
Smart guy !