3 reasons Eagles will beat Commanders and advance to Super Bowl LIX

For the third time this season, the Philadelphia Eagles will square off with the Washington Commanders.

This time, a spot in Super Bowl LIX is on the line.

The two teams split their season series, with the Eagles winning back in Week 11 at Lincoln Financial Field by a final score of 26-18, while the Commanders took the rematch in Week 16 by a final score of 36-33.

Now the rubber match is on the docket, with both teams hoping to head to New Orleans for Super Bowl LIX. Here are three reasons why that team could be the Eagles.

Saquon Barkley as Shohei Ohtani

Last Sunday’s NFC Divisional Round game between the Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams followed something of a familiar script.

A close game was broken open in the second half on a long touchdown run from Saquon Barkley.

With the Eagles holding a 22-15 lead late in the fourth quarter, they took over possession on their 22-yard line. One play and 78 yards later, Barkley was in the end zone, and Philadelphia had a 28-15 lead.

That storyline played out in the Week 11 meeting between these two teams, as the Eagles held a slim 12-10 lead midway through the fourth quarter. That is when Barkley gave Philadelphia a bit of a cushion on this 23-yard touchdown run to stake the Eagles to a 19-10 lead:

Then after Jayden Daniels threw an interception on Washington’s ensuing possession, the Eagles and Barkley struck again, on this 39-yard TD scamper:

What is notable about that Week 11 meeting is that the Commanders largely held Barkley in check during the first half, holding him to just 56 yards on 19 rushing attempts for a 3.7 average, well below his season average of 5.8 yards per attempt. But the danger of facing Barkley is similar to pitching to Shohei Ohtani — you might get the better of him for a while, but one mistake could spell game over.

When you add in the fact that Washington’s run defense is near the bottom of the league in Expected Points Allowed per Rushing Attempt (-0.019), that adds more evidence to the idea that while this game may be close heading into the fourth quarter, Barkley might break one or two more big plays to send the Eagles to Super Bowl LIX:

Data provided by RBSDM.com.

Jalen Hurts against simulated pressures

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is under an absolute microscope this weekend.

While the Eagles feature an imposing rushing attack, one of the best offensive lines in football, and a defense that has grown into its own throughout the season, Hurts and the Philadelphia passing attack is a massive question mark heading into the NFC Championship Game. What is most glaring is how Hurts has played in the face of pressure. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Hurts has an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 64.2% this season when pressured, ranking him 16th in that category among qualified passers (defined as QBs with 50% of their team’s dropbacks this season) and below Jayden Daniels.

(As an aside, Josh Allen ranks 24th out of 24 qualified passers in that metric, which is something to watch on Sunday evening).

Then there are these numbers from my dear friend J.P. Acosta’s piece on Hurts from Thursday:

This shows up massively under pressure, where Hurts is an entirely different QB. Among all QBs with at least 100 snaps under pressure per Sumer Sports, Hurts has a -0.52 EPA per play, only one spot above QB Daniel Jones and not too far off from Will Levis. He also has a paltry 26.8% Success Rate against pressure, which is in the same region as Deshaun Watson. Not great, Bob!

The Rams might have given Dan Quinn and company a bit of a roadmap to slowing down Hurts: Simulated pressures. Hurts and the Eagles offense struggled against those looks on Sunday. Take this example, which is one of the Rams’ seven sacks against the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round:

On this play, the Rams show pressure with linebackers walking up in the A-Gaps, and as the play begins Hurts gets his eyes to the right where the Eagles are running a spacing concept. However, one of the mugged-up linebackers drops under the route from DeVonta Smith, taking that option away from Hurts. The QB is late to get his eyes to the backside concept, where Philadelphia has a pair of slant routes, and the play ends in a sack.

Ideally, the Eagles stay out of situations like this against the Rams, where they faced a 3rd-and-6 situation. That begins with the first section here, and Philadelphia’s rushing attack keeping the Eagles on schedule and in more manageable third-down situations.

But should the Eagles get behind the sticks on third downs, they can expect to see more simulated pressure looks from the Commanders on Sunday. What they will need to get from Hurts in those moments are plays like this one against the Cleveland Browns earlier in the season:

On this play, a 1st-and-15 situation from Week 6, the Browns show pressure on the interior, but drop a pair of defensive tackles into underneath coverage, and bring pressure from the slot.

Calmly, Hurts sorts through his options in the pocket and attacks the middle of the field, connecting with tight end Grant Calcaterra on a 20-yard gain.

If Philadelphia gets moments like this from Hurts on Sunday, they are going to Super Bowl LIX.

Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith

Critical to Washington’s run to the NFC Championship Game has been the play of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, particularly against the blitz. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Daniels has an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 80.6% when blitzed in the playoffs, which is the best mark of the four quarterbacks left in the playoffs. Daniels’ improvement against the blitz has been stellar throughout his rookie season, and again a reason the Commanders are still alive.

However, that might change against the Eagles. Consider this from CBS Sports:

In Washington’s Week 16 win, the Eagles attempted to treat the Commanders quarterback like a rookie by blitzing Daniels on 35.6% of his dropbacks, which was Philadelphia’s second-highest blitz rate in a game of the 2024 season, including the playoffs. That approach didn’t work as Daniels tore up the Eagles’ blitz for 173 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions on 10 of his 15 throws while being blitzed. That netted out to a 145.3 passer rating, which was the third highest in an NFL game this season when blitzed on at least 15 throws in a game.

However, that blitz percentage against Washington in Week 16 was well above their season average. Over the regular season, Vic Fangio brought pressure on just 19.1% of snaps, which was fifth-lowest in the NFL.

As such, expect Fangio to blitz Daniels sparingly, leaning into his talented defenders up front to generate pressure on the rookie passer. Thankfully, he has players in Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith who can do just that. Against the Rams on Sunday that Georgia duo combined for 13 quarterback pressures, three sacks, three tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles.

If that duo can continue to pressure passers, without Philadelphia needing to blitz Daniels, the Eagles are going to Super Bowl LIX.