As the U.S. debt hits 100% of GDP and the 30-year Treasury yield nears the 5% mark, the bond market is finally forcing Washington’s hand. In this deep-dive interview, James Grant, founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, joins Jeremy Szafron to discuss why the Federal Reserve now regards gold as an “existential threat” to its discretionary power.
Grant warns that the current era of “Fiscal Dominance” means the Treasury’s interest bill is increasingly limiting what monetary policy can actually achieve. We explore the hidden “time bomb” in the $30 trillion private credit market, where stripped-away covenants and opaque “marks” have created a cycle that Grant believes must end in a “gale of fear”. From the AI CapEx bubble to the 91-year debasement of the dollar, this is a masterclass in credit discipline and monetary history.
Recorded May 1 2026
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Chapters:
00:00 Inflation Meets Bonds: The 5% Warning
00:54 Fiscal Dominance: Is the Treasury Running the Fed?
03:29 The Private Credit Time Bomb
04:05 Insurance Risk: Private Equity’s New Play
07:24 The Erosion of Covenants and Opaque Marks
10:18 LMEs: The “Extend and Pretend” Peak
12:38 The AI CapEx Bubble: Bubble vs. Use Case
17:02 Tech Cycles: Lessons from Railroads & Fiber Optics
19:44 Dollar Liquidity and the Fed’s Next Trap
24:18 The 91-Year Debasement Trade: Gold $4,500
28:55 Silver: Industrial Demand vs. Monetary Value
42:39 Why the Fed Hates Gold: The Hard Limit
#Gold #FederalReserve #DebtCrisis #JamesGrant #Investing #Macro #Inflation #Silver #Economy #Kitco
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44 Comments
trump will go banana's if his pet warsh raises rate
감사합니다.
@49 min mark…..mr Jim Grant says "grants hasnt been invited"
yet
Warsh has said your name on a recent video.
they listen.
best regards and Health to JIM GRANT
great guest a wealth of knowledge.. i think i remember him from wall street week
~$39Tn debt; ~$2Tn ongoing deficit; ~$12Tn due to be refinanced in this year; ~34% of debt is short Bills (and up to 84% of new debt, to keep yield low); less liquidity as oil pricing changes and money moves to safe havens: Short term debt = Higher risk = Higher rates = Spiral – No credible fix has been proposed for this.
There are two people whose every word I listen to rapturously. One is Jeffrey Sachs and the other is JIM GRANT
Kitco already has 4x more subscribers than BNN on YouTube. I'm certain it will be a 10 bagger in subscribers from here to 2030!
Please shave that ridiculous mustache……it reduces your creibility
I loved listening to Mr. Grant. His depth and breadth of knowledge spanning decades was a sheer pleasure to absorb. Thank you!
The praise of James Grant and the interviewer are lost on me.
"If Only We Didn't Look!" Hauntingly Frightning Statement! Were we told?: Around 1899-1900 America and the World were driving Automobiles that at that Time only about 47% Gasoline Powered, the other 53% were Driving ELECTRIC CARS ! Lol ! DEMAND The EU give Russia's Assets Back!
Another excellent ‘J Squared’ interview. 👊🏻
18 min in. 3 ads. That's one every 6 minutes. Greeedy.
Great job!
I like this guy, he's a great guest unlike many we must suffer through
great guest, as ever
These guys said nothing in the past hour.
Everything from food to commodities to energy to stocks is going up in price. That is a function of currency debasement. We are entering a hyperinflation. It won’t be pretty for some.
Brilliant
Love Jim Grant We share graying hair
So, he's basically predicting gold going a lot lower from here
The Fed is always causing the problem. Then they try to fix it.
Constant stealing our wealth through inflation
So why are my PMs going down?
the usa has the most gold
Jim's grounding presence is a refreshing pleasure.
the sound quality from Jim's side is awful. Very difficult to understand him.
Very informative and interesting. Fan of the show: diverse guests, salient questioning by presenter
Gold removes the accountability of the politicians.
Trump wealth has increased $3 billion he is pushing stable coins back by treasury bonds there trying to dump there$39 trillion dollar debt on the rest of the world . Central banks are pushing back buying gold to protect their currency’s from your crazy president!
With all due respect, another smart, insightful dude in a long lineup of such guests across many similar shows who should stick to writing columns. Too many of these super-annuated guests are too sleepy for YT. This guy's voice is better than Sleepy Time Tea.
Thanks for all you do Jeremy!
Most insurance regulators in any state are unequipped to understand the financial gymnastics that private equity owners are up to.
❤❤❤❤
James Grant👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Brilliant as always, with great guests. Real economics without the political bullshit.
Nice to have a real person instead of some freaky AI dude I've been watching lately.
Great video 👌 Very informative 👏
So if we were never to bet against the FED. Then the gold trade would be a loss.
On the other hand, the FED could lose the long game, so that makes the gold trade the best option.
But what we do know, is that the corruption of the people of the FED is beyond any scale, so they of course will change the rules down the line.
Feudalism has never left the power circles. Democracy is the last thing we have.
It is disgusting what is happening. And most come out of 2 corrupted gangster organizations of the 2 political parties in the US.
Such a delight to hear two intelligent and insightful gentlemen discuss reality in the financial markets without putting forth an agenda. They are both worth their weight in gold.
how's that Fort Knox audit going ?
Fiat Fails—Always !!
Get ready for + Market.
Gold vs the Rothschild’s Western banks.
James Grant is absolutely right. My father said the same back in the nineties. He bought at least a million in PCGS graded $20 gold pieces when gold was averaging around $400. I believe it is still buried somewhere in Homestead Florida. He always buried his $h!t in hermetically sealed 4" PVC, the IRS had his number big time.